Manchester City enters the 2025-26 Premier League season with a point to prove. Last year’s third-place finish, trailing Liverpool by 13 points, marked an uncharacteristic stumble for Pep Guardiola’s machine. The absence of Rodri through injury exposed vulnerabilities many thought didn’t exist, while Kevin De Bruyne’s summer departure to Napoli signals the end of an era at the Etihad.
Yet from adversity comes opportunity. Manchester City has responded with strategic recruitment, bringing in Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, Rayan Aït-Nouri, and James Trafford to refresh a squad that showed signs of staleness. With Rodri’s return imminent and Guardiola’s tactical genius undimmed, the ingredients for a title challenge are present.
The Premier League returns this week with Manchester City determined to remind everyone why they’ve dominated English football for the better part of a decade. Five crucial questions will determine whether this season marks triumphant redemption or continued transition.
Table of Contents
1. How Much of a Difference Will Rodri Make?
The Statistical Impact of Absence
Manchester City’s 2024-25 campaign was effectively derailed just 21 minutes into Rodri’s first start when he suffered an ACL injury in September. The statistical contrast between City with and without their Spanish maestro tells a stark story of dependency and disruption.
| Period | With Rodri | Without Rodri | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games (Feb 2023 – Sept 2024) | 77 | 16 | – |
| Losses | 1 | 5 | +400% loss rate |
| Win Rate | 84.4% | 62.5% | -21.9% |
| Points Per Game | 2.6 | 1.9 | -0.7 |
During Rodri’s absence last season, Manchester City lost 16 times across all competitions—four more defeats than they’d suffered in any other full season under Guardiola. This wasn’t merely coincidence; it reflected the Spaniard’s irreplaceable role in City’s possession-based philosophy.
The Possession Maestro
Rodri’s influence extends far beyond defensive screening. His 2023-24 statistics reveal a player operating at an unprecedented level:
- 111.2 passes per 90 minutes (92.3% accuracy) – highest in Europe’s top five leagues
- 3,359 successful passes – Premier League record since 2003-04
- 2,122 successful opposition-half passes – Premier League record
- 126 touches per 90 – 24 more than any City teammate
- 8.4 shot-ending sequence involvements per 90 – Premier League leader
These numbers illustrate not just volume but quality. Rodri doesn’t simply recycle possession; he drives City’s entire attacking rhythm. His ability to receive under pressure, turn, and distribute with precision makes him the fulcrum around which Guardiola’s tactical symphony revolves.
Offensive Evolution
The 2023-24 season saw Rodri elevate his attacking contribution to new heights, recording 22 goal involvements (9 goals, 13 assists)—a personal best. This added dimension transformed him from defensive anchor to complete midfielder, capable of arriving late in the box or threading decisive passes.
Unfortunately, a pre-season groin strain means Rodri will miss the season’s opening weeks, likely returning after September’s international break. When he does return, Manchester City will effectively gain their most important “new signing” of the summer—a player whose presence could be worth 10-15 points across the campaign.
2. Who Will Pick up the Creative Slack From Kevin De Bruyne?
The End of an Era
Kevin De Bruyne’s departure to Napoli marks the conclusion of one of the Premier League’s greatest creative careers. His legacy at Manchester City is unquestionable:
| De Bruyne’s Premier League Legacy | Total | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Assists | 119 | 2nd All-Time |
| Chances Created (since 2003-04) | 846 | Joint-2nd |
| Big Chances Created | 112 | 3rd All-Time |
| Key Passes | 723 | 2nd All-Time |
Even in injury-plagued recent seasons, De Bruyne retained the ability to produce match-defining moments. His departure creates a creative void that no single player can fill—but Manchester City has recruited two intriguing talents to share the burden.
Tijjani Reijnders: The Line-Breaker
Reijnders arrives from AC Milan with a different profile than De Bruyne but equally valuable attributes. His specialty lies in breaking lines with precision passing and press-resistant dribbling:
- 47 line-breaking passes – Most in Serie A 2024-25
- 147 midfield line breaks – 7th in Serie A
- 10 goals from 77 shots – Most among Serie A non-strikers
Reijnders excels at exploiting spaces behind full-backs, potentially creating new angles for Erling Haaland. His ability to carry the ball forward and shoot from distance adds verticality to City’s sometimes predictable possession play.
Rayan Cherki: The Maverick Creator
Cherki represents a more direct De Bruyne replacement in terms of pure creativity. His 2024-25 statistics at Lyon were extraordinary:
| Cherki’s Creative Output | Total | Europe Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Chances Created (All Comps) | 125 | 3rd |
| Open Play Chances | 100 | 4th |
| Chances per 90 | 3.7 | 1st |
| Open Play Chances per 90 | 2.9 | 1st |
| Chances from Carries | 20 | 4th in Ligue 1 |
Among players with 1,600+ minutes across Europe’s top five leagues, no one created chances at Cherki’s rate. His style differs from De Bruyne’s directness—Cherki relies more on dribbling, flair, and unpredictability. Whether Guardiola grants him the positional freedom he enjoyed at Lyon will determine his impact.
The challenge for both Reijnders and Cherki is adaptation. De Bruyne understood City’s patterns instinctively, knowing when to accelerate play and where teammates would move. Building such understanding takes time, making their integration crucial to City’s title hopes.
3. What Does Rayan Aït-Nouri’s Arrival Mean for City’s Full-Backs?
A Philosophical Shift
Guardiola’s recent preference for converted center-backs at full-back—prioritizing defensive solidity and positional discipline—appears to be evolving with Rayan Aït-Nouri’s arrival from Wolves. The Algerian represents a return to the marauding full-back archetype that once defined City’s width.
Aït-Nouri’s Attacking Credentials
The statistics from his final Wolves season highlight an exceptionally attack-minded defender:
| Aït-Nouri 2024-25 Stats | Total | Defender Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Touches in Opposition Box | 104 | 2nd |
| Off-Ball Runs into Box | 137 | 3rd |
| Goal Involvements | 11 | 1st |
| Successful Dribbles | 48 | 5th |
| Progressive Carries | 89 | 4th |
These numbers came despite Wolves’ struggles, suggesting even greater potential in City’s dominant system. Aït-Nouri offers genuine width, pace, and technical ability that could unlock packed defenses.
The Gvardiol Conundrum
Josko Gvardiol’s successful conversion to left-back last season complicates matters. The Croatian managed 5 goals and 3 assists while maintaining defensive stability. His physical presence and tactical intelligence made him valuable in Guardiola’s system.
Aït-Nouri’s arrival presents tactical options:
- Scenario A: Gvardiol returns to center-back, partnering Rúben Dias
- Scenario B: Rotation based on opposition (Aït-Nouri vs. low blocks, Gvardiol vs. counter-attacking teams)
- Scenario C: Asymmetric full-backs with one attacking, one inverted
The defensive questions surrounding Aït-Nouri remain. His attacking instincts sometimes compromise positioning, potentially exposing City to counters. Guardiola must balance offensive threat with defensive security—a challenge that could define City’s tactical evolution.
4. Who Will Be First-Choice Goalkeeper By the End of the Season?
The Three-Way Battle
Manchester City’s goalkeeper situation has become unexpectedly complex with James Trafford’s £31 million return from Burnley. The club now boasts three high-quality options, each with distinct claims to the starting position.
Ederson’s Renaissance
Despite speculation about his future, Ederson produced arguably his best Premier League season:
| Ederson 2024-25 Performance | Stat | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Prevented (vs xGOT) | +5.4 | 2nd in PL |
| Save Percentage | 73.8% | Career High |
| Assists | 4 | PL Record for GK |
| Pass Accuracy | 84.2% | League Best |
| Long Ball Accuracy | 58.4% | League Best |
Ederson’s distribution reached new heights, becoming the first goalkeeper in Premier League history to register more than two assists in a season. His ability to launch counter-attacks with precise long balls remains unmatched.
Trafford’s Remarkable Rise
After struggling in Burnley’s Premier League relegation, Trafford’s Championship campaign was historic:
- 12.5 goals prevented – 2nd best in Championship
- 0.35 goals conceded per game – Best ever in EFL history
- 30 clean sheets – Tied EFL record
- 84.6% save percentage – Championship best
Trafford’s passing ability, honed in City’s academy, suits Guardiola’s philosophy. At 22, he represents the future, but his limited top-flight experience raises questions about readiness for title-race pressure.
Stefan Ortega: The Forgotten Man
Ortega’s situation appears most precarious despite excellent performances when called upon. His shot-stopping reliability and distribution quality make him superior to most Premier League starters, yet he faces potential demotion to third choice.
The goalkeeper hierarchy could shift based on performance, form, and Guardiola’s tactical preferences. Ederson’s experience suggests he’ll start the season as number one, but Trafford’s potential and significant transfer fee indicate planned succession. This competition could enhance performance levels or create destabilizing uncertainty.
5. Can Guardiola Get More From His Wide Players?
The Productivity Problem
Manchester City’s wide players significantly underperformed last season, contributing just 12 Premier League goals between Savinho, Jérémy Doku, Phil Foden, and Jack Grealish. For context, Mohamed Salah alone scored 28 from similar positions.
| Player | Games | Goals | Assists | xG | Underperformance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foden | 32 | 7 | 3 | 9.2 | -2.2 |
| Savinho | 29 | 3 | 5 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| Doku | 26 | 2 | 5 | 3.9 | -1.9 |
| Grealish | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
This collective underperformance contributed to City’s struggles, reducing goal threat diversity and making them predictable. With Grealish likely departing, pressure intensifies on the remaining wide options.
Foden’s Redemption Arc
Phil Foden’s 2024-25 campaign was his most disappointing since breaking through. After 27 goal involvements in 2023-24, his drop-off was stark. Whether deployed centrally or wide, Foden must rediscover his rhythm and confidence.
His technical ability remains undoubted, but questions persist about his best position. The arrival of Cherki could push Foden into more central areas, potentially unlocking the consistency that eluded him last season.
Savinho’s Sophomore Season
First seasons under Guardiola rarely reflect a player’s ultimate potential. Savinho showed promising glimpses—quick feet, intelligent movement, willingness to take defenders on—but lacked end product. Year two often sees dramatic improvement as players internalize Guardiola’s positional demands.
The Brazilian’s adaptation curve mirrors previous City wingers who initially struggled before flourishing. If he follows that trajectory, Savinho could become the explosive wide threat City desperately needs.
The Doku Dilemma
Jérémy Doku presents a unique challenge. His dribbling statistics are elite-level:
- 4.9 successful dribbles per 90 – Premier League best
- 62% dribble success rate – Top 5 in Europe
- 3.2 progressive carries per 90 – Premier League 3rd
Yet his final ball remains frustratingly inconsistent. Despite limited starts, Doku managed 9 goal involvements, suggesting potential exists. The question is whether Guardiola can coach decision-making without diminishing Doku’s explosive spontaneity.
Squad Depth and Tactical Flexibility
The Broader Picture
Beyond the five key questions, Manchester City’s squad depth remains formidable. The midfield options—Rodri, Reijnders, Bernardo Silva, Mateo Kovačić—offer various tactical combinations. Defensively, the center-back partnership of Rúben Dias and Manuel Akanji/Josko Gvardiol provides stability.
Haaland’s Role
Erling Haaland remains the focal point, coming off another 30+ goal season. The new creative options should theoretically provide varied service, preventing the predictability that sometimes limited City’s attacking patterns. Cherki’s ability to play between the lines could particularly benefit Haaland’s movement in the box.
The Premier League Landscape
Competition Analysis
Manchester City faces renewed challenges from familiar rivals:
- Liverpool: Defending champions under Arne Slot
- Arsenal: Three consecutive runner-up finishes fuel desperation
- Chelsea: Club World Cup winners with momentum
- Manchester United: Major rebuild under Ruben Amorim
The competitive landscape appears more challenging than recent seasons, demanding City rediscover their ruthless consistency.
Season Predictions
Best Case Scenario
- Premier League: Champions with 90+ points
- Champions League: Semi-finals minimum
- Domestic Cups: At least one trophy
- Key Players: Rodri Ballon d’Or contention, Haaland 35+ goals
Realistic Expectations
- Premier League: Top 2 finish, serious title challenge
- Champions League: Quarter-finals
- Domestic Cups: Deep runs
- Development: Successful integration of new signings
Worst Case Scenario
- Premier League: 3rd-4th place finish
- Champions League: Round of 16 exit
- Domestic Cups: Early eliminations
- Consequences: Questions about Guardiola’s future
FAQs
When will Rodri return from injury for Manchester City?
Rodri’s groin strain will keep him out until after September’s international break, missing the season’s opening weeks.
Who replaced Kevin De Bruyne after his move to Napoli?
Tijjani Reijnders and Rayan Cherki were signed to share creative duties, with Cherki creating 3.7 chances per 90 last season.
How much did Manchester City spend on James Trafford?
City exercised their buy-back clause for £31 million to re-sign Trafford from Burnley after his record-breaking Championship season.
Why did Manchester City’s wide players underperform last season?
Foden, Savinho, Doku, and Grealish managed just 12 league goals combined, significantly underperforming their expected goals by 8 total.
What was Manchester City’s record without Rodri last season?
City lost 16 times across all competitions without Rodri, four more defeats than any other full season under Guardiola.
