Liverpool vs Man United: Six Factors That Will Decide the Premier League Tie in Anfield

Where will this clash between Premier League titans be settled? We examine six pivotal factors that could prove decisive when Liverpool welcome Manchester United to Anfield on Sunday.

Just a few weeks earlier, most observers would have confidently predicted Liverpool as commanding favorites against Manchester United in this Sunday’s Anfield encounter.

The reigning Premier League champions were flying high following a perfect start of five consecutive victories, while United had managed just two wins alongside two defeats and a draw. An eight-point gap already separated these historic adversaries.

However, Arne Slot’s squad subsequently suffered defeats at Crystal Palace and Chelsea, bookending a Champions League loss in Turkey against Galatasaray. These setbacks cost them their league summit position to Arsenal and significantly diminished their previously untouchable reputation.

Nevertheless, all three defeats came away from home, making this weekend’s return to their Anfield fortress a welcome respite. Meanwhile, despite Ruben Amorim’s team arriving on the back of a victory and clean sheet against Sunderland, their away form tells a concerning story – they haven’t secured a Premier League victory on the road in their last eight attempts (drawing two, losing six). Their last longer winless streak away from home dates back to September 1989 during Alex Ferguson’s early tenure (11 games).

While the Opta supercomputer still heavily backs Liverpool, the margins have narrowed considerably. But exactly where will this encounter’s fate be determined? We’ve identified six crucial battlegrounds that could ultimately decide which side claims the three points.

1. Can Salah Rediscover His Magic Against His Favorite Foe?

Mohamed Salah’s struggles this campaign have been well-documented. Whether it stems from natural aging, the absence of Trent Alexander-Arnold’s pinpoint delivery, or the emotional impact of losing close friend and teammate Diogo Jota during the summer, the Egyptian hasn’t resembled his usual devastating self.

Regardless of the underlying causes behind his subdued displays, few would bet against Salah returning to peak form soon. After all, this is the same player who shattered Premier League records for goal contributions in a single 38-game season just months ago.

If there’s an ideal stage and perfect opposition for the winger to reignite his scoring instincts, Sunday’s encounter with Manchester United fits the bill perfectly.

The statistics tell a compelling story: Salah boasts more goals (13) and total goal involvements (19) against United than any player in Premier League history. Should he add another contribution before potentially departing England, he’d join an exclusive group of just six players to register 20+ goal involvements versus a single opponent in the competition’s history.

United’s defensive frailties this season provide additional encouragement. They’ve shipped nine goals across four away fixtures in all competitions. In Premier League terms, only Burnley and West Ham have surrendered more non-penalty expected goals (10.1 xG). The quality of chances they’re conceding is also alarming – the average expected goal value per shot faced (0.16 xG) ranks worst in the division.

The equation appears straightforward: Salah thrives against United, while United struggles to prevent goals, surrenders numerous opportunities, and allows high-quality chances. Could the stars finally align for the Egyptian’s renaissance?

2. Will United’s Attack Finally Click Into Gear?

While Manchester United’s defensive vulnerabilities are well-documented, Amorim’s side has actually been prolific in creating attacking opportunities this campaign.

The Red Devils lead the Premier League in shot attempts after seven matches (110) and top the expected goals charts (14.1 xG), demonstrating their ability to fashion scoring chances consistently.

The problem lies in execution. United have managed just nine goals, representing a staggering underperformance of 5.06 xG – the worst conversion rate across Europe’s elite leagues. Factor in two own goals that don’t contribute to xG calculations, and their actual shooting underperformance balloons to 7.06 xG.

This finishing malaise extends from last season’s struggles, when their 9.4 xG underperformance (44 goals from 53.4 xG) ranked second-worst in the division.

Recent signs offer cautious optimism, however. United have found the net in their last three Premier League outings, while their lowest single-game xG total this season reached 1.52 (against both Arsenal and Manchester City).

Logic suggests they’ll manufacture opportunities at Anfield, particularly against a Liverpool defense that’s appeared susceptible this term. The hosts looked especially exposed during their opening encounter with Bournemouth, while goalkeepers Alisson and Giorgi Mamardashvili deserve credit for preventing heavier defeats against Palace, Galatasaray, and Chelsea.

Yet the defensive statistics paint a different picture. Only three Premier League teams have faced fewer shots than Liverpool (71), while just four sides boast a lower xG against (7.9). Perhaps the champions’ backline isn’t as fragile as perceived, though several factors could provide United with encouragement.

Right-back uncertainty, Ibrahima Konaté’s inconsistent form, new left-back Milos Kerkez’s ongoing adaptation, and Alisson’s injury absence all represent potential weak points for the visitors to exploit.

While most expect Liverpool to control proceedings, United’s ability to capitalize on their created chances – rather than their proven capacity to generate them – will likely determine their prospects of claiming a rare away victory.

3. Brace Yourself for Last-Gasp Drama!

Stoppage-time theatrics have become the Premier League’s defining characteristic this season. Across 70 matches, an unprecedented 24 goals have arrived in the 90th minute or beyond, with 10 proving decisive – both figures representing historical highs for the competition.

The rivalry between these old adversaries has provided a disproportionate share of this late-game excitement. Seven of those final-minute strikes – a remarkable 25% – have featured either Liverpool or United. Even more striking, five of the ten 90th-minute winners – exactly half – have involved one of these clubs. Liverpool have also claimed victories with goals in the 83rd and 88th minutes.

Strip away those dramatic finales, and both teams’ seasons look drastically different. Liverpool would have four draws instead of maintaining their perfect record in that regard, while United would plummet to 13th position. These sides understand better than most how crucial it is to maintain intensity until the referee’s final whistle – and how devastating a momentary lapse can prove.

The contrast between these historic rivals has rarely been starker. Eight league positions separate them – an unusual gap – and it’s almost unheard of for the defending champions to face opponents who finished 15th the previous campaign. Logic suggests Liverpool, clearly the superior force currently, should cruise to victory. Their recent demolitions – that stunning 7-0 thrashing in 2023 and 4-0 mauling a year prior – demonstrate their capacity to humiliate United spectacularly.

Yet the frequency of late winners involving both teams reveals another truth: their matches have consistently remained competitive deep into injury time. Perhaps this weekend’s encounter is destined for similar tension, echoing recent Anfield stalemates (0-0 in 2023-24, 2-2 in 2024-25).

Liverpool haven’t operated at peak efficiency this campaign – those numerous late goals are evidence enough. Meanwhile, United may languish in 10th, but they’ve displayed enough promising moments to suggest they can trouble the champions and their greatest rivals. They possess the quality to keep this contest finely balanced until the dying moments.

The message is clear: if you’re tuning in, stay glued to your screens until the final seconds. Something extraordinary might unfold when it matters most.

4. Can Wirtz Exploit United’s Midfield Vulnerabilities?

Enormous anticipation surrounded Florian Wirtz’s arrival at Liverpool following his nine-figure summer transfer from Bayer Leverkusen.

While the German has demonstrated glimpses of his exceptional talent, his Premier League adaptation has been gradual rather than explosive. Through seven league appearances, Wirtz remains without a goal or assist, despite registering nine shots and crafting 11 scoring opportunities. His combined total of 20 shots and chances created leads all players yet to record a direct goal contribution this season.

His solitary involvement across 10 matches in all competitions came during the Community Shield against Crystal Palace, where he assisted fellow newcomer Hugo Ekitiké.

The 22-year-old’s primary challenge has been adjusting to the Premier League’s relentless tempo and reduced space for creativity. However, Manchester United’s notorious midfield gaps could provide the perfect stage for Wirtz to announce himself.

Amorim’s preferred central pairing of Casemiro and Bruno Fernandes offers experience and attacking threat, but their defensive cohesion often crumbles when United lose possession. The Brazilian’s mobility has diminished considerably, while Fernandes’ forward-thinking instincts frequently leave his partner isolated in vast spaces.

Additionally, United’s zones of control reveal they’ve struggled to dominate possession down the right flank of their own half – precisely where Wirtz loves to drift and operate. Should all three start, the interplay between the German, Cody Gakpo, and new left-back Milos Kerkez could prove decisive in determining Liverpool’s attacking success.

This represents an area where Liverpool have generally maintained superiority this campaign.

Former Reds manager Jürgen Klopp recently praised Wirtz to German broadcaster n-tv: “His quality is so outstanding. The discussions are a bit exaggerated. [Wirtz is] a once-in-a-century talent, and at some point he’ll show that in every game again, just as he did at Leverkusen.”

The statistics support Klopp’s assessment – Wirtz has created more chances than any Premier League player across all competitions this season (22). His breakthrough moment surely approaches, and Sunday’s high-profile encounter could provide the ideal launchpad for his English football renaissance.

5. United’s Route to Goal: Targeting Liverpool’s Right-Back Revolving Door

When Trent Alexander-Arnold patrolled Liverpool’s right flank, critics consistently questioned his defensive reliability. Too often, opposition wingers breezed past him or caught him out of position, exposing vulnerabilities down that corridor.

The potential silver lining from Alexander-Arnold’s Real Madrid departure was defensive improvement – sacrificing his extraordinary creative output for greater solidity at the back. Unfortunately, this upgrade has yet to materialize.

Jeremie Frimpong represents a possible long-term solution, but assessment remains premature. His debut Premier League campaign spans just seven matches, with hamstring problems already causing several absences. While he could eventually prove the ideal replacement, that day hasn’t arrived.

Even if Frimpong achieves match fitness for United’s visit, he hasn’t yet acclimatized to English football’s demands. His early performances, alongside those of alternative options Conor Bradley and Dominik Szoboszlai, suggest none currently offer greater defensive reliability than their predecessor.

The statistics paint a concerning picture. In Premier League matches this season, Liverpool’s opponents have generated 43.5% of their scoring chances down the hosts’ right side, compared to just 28.2% from the left flank. The weakness persists, and teams are actively targeting this area.

These figures might reflect understandable growing pains. Liverpool are navigating significant transition following numerous summer changes, while the right-back position has lacked any semblance of consistency.

Regardless of mitigation, United possess a clear tactical blueprint for exploitation. With pace and directness down Liverpool’s problematic right channel, Amorim’s men could discover their most promising avenue toward goal.

The question isn’t whether this vulnerability exists – the evidence is overwhelming. Rather, it’s whether United possess the quality and tactical discipline to capitalize on Liverpool’s most obvious defensive flaw.

6. Can the Big-Money Strikers Deliver When It Matters Most?

Both clubs invested heavily in attacking reinforcements during the summer transfer window, with central strikers representing significant portions of their spending sprees. The early returns have been mixed across the trio of expensive acquisitions.

Hugo Ekitiké has made the strongest initial impression at Liverpool, netting five goals and contributing one assist across 10 appearances (seven starts) from 5.22 expected goals. No other player from either squad has managed more than three goals this season. Beyond a reckless red card in the EFL Cup against Southampton, the French international has impressed during his opening months at Anfield.

Alexander Isak’s arrival proved far more complicated, contributing to his sluggish Merseyside beginning. The Swedish striker endured significant pre-season disruption while engineering his protracted departure from Newcastle United. Despite featuring six times for his new club, Isak has accumulated just 312 minutes as he continues building match fitness, managing only one goal and one assist thus far.

Benjamin Sesko also experienced a chaotic summer, remaining uncertain whether he’d join Arsenal, Newcastle, or ultimately Manchester United. The towering Slovenian initially struggled to find his feet, failing to score in his first six appearances (though only three were starts). However, recent form suggests improvement – he’s netted in consecutive matches against Brentford and Sunderland. Sesko’s two goals from eight games (five starts) have come from 2.3 expected goals.

Team selection uncertainty surrounds whether Ekitiké or Isak will start for Liverpool on Sunday, while Sesko appears likely to lead United’s attack. The stage is perfectly set for one of these marquee signings to seize the spotlight and provide their debut campaigns with genuine momentum.

Historical records offer little guidance. Ekitiké has never faced United previously, while Isak has managed just one goal in eight career appearances against the Red Devils – though that strike came during Newcastle’s 2-0 Old Trafford victory last season. Sesko’s sole competitive encounter with Liverpool resulted in a 1-0 Champions League defeat while representing RB Leipzig.

With a combined transfer valuation approaching £280 million, expectations remain sky-high that at least one of these premium acquisitions will justify their price tags when these titans collide on Sunday.

Read More: Liverpool vs Man United Preview: Prediction, Team News and Where to Watch the Match LIVE

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