Italy’s Long Road Back: Can The Azzurri End Their World Cup Exile?

For many football fans, the idea of a World Cup without Italy doesn’t compute. Yet anyone under 20 hasn’t seen the Azzurri play in a World Cup knockout game, while anyone under 12 won’t have seen them play in a World Cup at all.

Italy have won four FIFA World Cup titles, but haven’t played a knockout game since lifting the trophy in 2006. They haven’t qualified for the last two editions, making this week a make-or-break moment.

Italy took a crucial step toward ending that drought on Thursday, beating Northern Ireland 2-0 in Bergamo to reach the UEFA World Cup playoff final. Second-half goals from Sandro Tonali and Moise Kean sent the Azzurri through, but they remain one win away from their first World Cup since 2014.

A Storied History Now Distant Memory

Italy won the World Cup in 1934, 1938, and most recently in 2006, and qualified for all but one tournament from then until 2018—the only exception being 1958.

Between 1978 and 2006, Italy reached the knockout stage of eight consecutive World Cups. However, their recent record makes for sobering reading:

The last time Italy played in a World Cup was June 2014, losing 1-0 to Uruguay in the group stage.

The 2022 failure was particularly shocking—they lost at home to North Macedonia despite being champions of Europe, having won Euro 2020 (held in 2021).

Third Time’s the Charm?

Italy didn’t do badly in their group; they came up against a relentless Erling Haaland-led Norway side that won all eight games. Italy won their other six, but that was only enough for a play-off spot.

The Breakthrough

Italy struggled to break down a resilient Northern Ireland side in the first half, with the match goalless at the break. Gennaro Gattuso’s men came out with renewed determination after halftime.

The deadlock was finally broken in the 56th minute when Tonali capitalized on Isaac Price’s poor clearance, thrashing home a first-time strike from the edge of the box. Kean, a constant threat throughout the night, then settled it 10 minutes from time as his left-footed strike went in off the post.

Bosnia Await in Final

Italy will now travel to Bosnia and Herzegovina on Tuesday, March 31, for the playoff final. Bosnia advanced after beating Wales 4-2 on penalties following a 1-1 draw in Cardiff.

Daniel James put Wales ahead with a stunning strike early in the second half, but 40-year-old Edin Dzeko equalized in the 86th minute, heading home from Kerim Alajbegovic’s corner. Neither side could force a winner in extra time, and while Karl Darlow saved the first penalty, Brennan Johnson and Neco Williams both missed for Wales, allowing Alajbegovic to seal Bosnia’s victory.

The Gattuso Era Begins

Things started dreadfully, losing 3-0 in Norway. Luciano Spalletti announced he’d been relieved of his position three days later after a 2-0 home win against Moldova.

Gennaro Gattuso was named replacement. The former Italy midfielder played in the 2006 World Cup-winning side, with hopes he could restore spirit and hope. The 48-year-old has had an inconsistent managerial career, taking charge of 10 different clubs in 12 years between 2013 and 2025 across six countries.

There’s a famous clip of Gattuso as OFI Crete manager saying the Greek team were “sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe s—!” That description could arguably apply to the Italian national team in recent years.

Immediate Impact, Mixed Results

Gattuso had immediate impact, with Italy thrashing Estonia 5-0 in his first game. Though 0-0 at half-time in Bergamo, they found stride after Moise Kean scored the first goal of the Gattuso era.

Three days later, they hit five again in a topsy-turvy game against Israel in Hungary, with Sandro Tonali scoring a dramatic stoppage-time winner in a 5-4 success.

They beat Estonia (3-1) and Israel (3-0) again, before two late goals in Moldova made it five wins from five.

When Francesco Pio Esposito gave Italy an early lead at home to Norway in their final qualifier, it felt like Italy were rising again, only for the game to end 4-1 to the visitors after a chastening second half at San Siro.

The biggest test will be this week’s play-offs.

Tactical Flexibility and Mental Approach

Gattuso went with an old-school 4-4-2 setup in his first two games in charge, before changing between three- and four-at-the-back formations in his next four. He has shown himself to be a tactically flexible coach, but he insisted at a press conference on Monday that the play-offs will be more about the mental side of things.

“We must be able to make the players feel lighter,” he told reporters. “Italy didn’t play in the last two World Cups… but there is no need to suffocate them. These are players who have won the Euros and played in Champions League finals. They are accustomed to these games.”

“There are no excuses; we must only think about Thursday’s game. We must have the right mentality and serenity.”

Attack-Minded Approach

For those who still associate Italian football with defending and little else, Gattuso has made his side attack with verve since his appointment in June 2025. In that time, only Portugal (150) and Belgium (143) attempted more shots in UEFA World Cup qualifiers than them (140).

However, they perhaps need to get into better positions before letting fly. No team that attempted at least 100 shots in qualifying in that time had a lower average xG per shot than Italy (0.11).

Experience in the Dugout

Helpfully for such occasions, Gattuso does have winning experience alongside him in the dugout in Leonardo Bonucci. The former Juventus and Milan centre-back was a big part of his country’s success at Euro 2020, scoring the equalising goal against England in the final, and converting his penalty in the shootout.

Building a Core Team

Six players have started five of Gattuso’s six games in charge before the Northern Ireland match: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Federico Dimarco, Tonali, Nicolò Barella, and Mateo Retegui.

Retegui has been particularly effective with nine goal involvements (five goals and four assists) in six games under Gattuso. Along with Kean (now five goals in four games) and Esposito (three goals in five), Gattuso has goalscorers at his disposal in a way Italy haven’t for a while.

Since the qualifiers for the 2006 tournament, only Ciro Immobile has scored more goals for Italy in a World Cup qualifying campaign (six goals in 12 games for the 2018 World Cup) than Retegui’s five in eight games in this one. Kean’s goal against Northern Ireland makes him even more valuable heading into Tuesday’s final.

The Talent Pool Question

Many questions have been asked about Italy’s drop-off in recent times, and there are a number of possible reasons for it. One could be a comparative scarcity in options.

Of players who have made at least 10 appearances in one of Europe’s top five leagues this season, only 142 have been of Italian affiliation. Compare that to 20 years ago, when there were almost double the amount of Italian players in Europe’s top five leagues (280 with 10+ games played in 2005-06), meaning then-manager Marcello Lippi had a lot more options to choose from than Gattuso does.

Obviously, that 2005-06 total is based on a full season, so this season’s number could well go up a bit by the end of the 2025-26 campaign.

Having said all that, while 142 is fewer than the respective numbers for Spain (274) and France (201), it is not far behind Germany (151) and is actually more than England (128), who are one of the favourites to win the World Cup.

The Bosnia Challenge

Bosnia and Herzegovina are hoping to reach their first World Cup since 2014. Edin Dzeko, who turned 40 earlier this month, has been in exceptional form with six goals in eight games in 2026 World Cup qualifying. His late equalizer against Wales was his 73rd international goal.

Since the qualifiers for the 2010 World Cup, only Robert Lewandowski for Poland (34) and Cristiano Ronaldo for Portugal (34) have scored more World Cup qualifier goals than Dzeko overall (30 in 44 games).

The match will be played in Zenica at the Bilino Polje Stadium on Tuesday, March 31 (19:45 GMT). The winner qualifies for the 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico, and the United States.

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