History may not repeat itself, but it often echoes.
When Real Madrid sold Claude Makélélé to Chelsea in 2003 and signed David Beckham, Florentino Pérez believed a young talent would step up from the academy to fill the French midfielder’s role. “He rarely passes the ball further than three meters,” Pérez quipped, downplaying the departure. Chelsea manager Claudio Ranieri was thrilled with the acquisition, referring to Makélélé as the new battery in his Rolex.
After winning La Liga the previous year, Real Madrid slipped to fourth place the following season and struggled to find a suitable replacement for the Frenchman for several years.
This summer, Toni Kroos announced his retirement, leaving a gap even larger than the one Makélélé left when he headed to Stamford Bridge. While there are parallels between the two situations, they differ significantly. Kroos chose to retire, and Pérez, it seems, has come to appreciate the value of a player who unites the team.
Kylian Mbappé finally arrived at Barajas Airport this summer, much like Beckham did in our narrative. Now nearing 26, he needs Real Madrid more than they need him. Despite being widely regarded as the successor to Lionel Messi and the last generation of football superstars, he has yet to win a Ballon d’Or or a major club trophy beyond Ligue 1 and a few French cup competitions.
Real Madrid recently achieved a league and Champions League double, seemingly poised to dominate domestically for at least a decade. They have produced four of the last seven Ballon d’Or winners and have another candidate, Vinícius Júnior, set to be announced next week. Mbappé realized that to advance in his career, playing at Santiago Bernabéu was essential.
Now, six months into this new era for Madrid, Carlo Ancelotti faces the challenge of restoring balance to his team. While Real Madrid’s lineups resemble a shortlist for the Ballon d’Or, the team itself lacks direction.
If losing Makélélé meant losing their battery, then losing Kroos signifies a loss of their GPS. As Los Blancos prepare to face a formidable Barcelona in Saturday’s El Clásico, we return to a question posed back in the summer of 2003: how many galácticos is too many galácticos?
Jude’s Evolving and A Very Demanding Role
The impact of Mbappé’s arrival and Kroos’ departure has extended beyond their specific positions on the field, resulting in a complete shift in dynamics, altered responsibilities, and a loss of team balance.
One player significantly affected by these changes is Jude Bellingham.
Despite his youth, there’s a maturity about Bellingham that suggests a sense of destiny. When he scored the decisive goal for England against Slovakia at Euro 2024, he confidently stated: “Who else?”
Ole Gunnar Solskjær recently reflected on meeting Bellingham at Old Trafford when the midfielder was considering a move to Manchester United, noting, “He was 17 at the time, and he was the most mature 17-year-old I’ve ever met—he had it all planned out.”
Following Karim Benzema’s departure from Madrid last year, Bellingham recognized the need for goals. He delivered impressively, scoring 19 in his debut La Liga season, along with six assists. With Kroos now absent, he instinctively understands the midfield’s need for support and has made efforts to step up.
However, he often appears frustrated as he attempts to recalibrate the team’s strategy.
Bellingham’s attacking statistics have declined since last season. His expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes have nearly halved, dropping from 0.36 to 0.21 this season. Additionally, his touches inside the penalty area and passes in the opposition’s half have both decreased. As of now, he has yet to score this season and has only one assist in the league, plus another in the Champions League.
Last season, the team was structured around him; this season, he is tasked with adapting to accommodate his superstar teammates. In the 2024-25 season, Bellingham has spent 87% of his minutes in central and left midfield, whereas in 2023-24, he played as the central attacking midfielder for 66% of his 3,316 minutes in La Liga.
Last year, the English all-rounder thrived on long balls played over the top into the penalty area while occupying a role that blurred the lines between false nine, central midfielder, and box-crashing attacking midfielder. However, that type of pass is no longer available primarily because Kroos is no longer on the field to deliver them. Additionally, with Mbappé frequently lurking in search of goals, Bellingham faces competition for those runs into space. Moreover, he is cautious about venturing too far forward due to his responsibilities as a central midfielder. As a result, he isn’t finding himself in positions to receive passes in central attacking areas as often as he did before.
This season, he has taken on a variety of roles, blurring the lines between being a reliable support player and a standout performer. In the match against Celta Vigo, he played as a right midfielder during Madrid’s defensive phases but moved into a more central position when the team attacked. His heightened sense of responsibility has led to an increase in his tackles and interceptions per 90 minutes compared to last year.
In fact, his defensive statistics are the only aspect showing improvement this season, which isn’t necessarily the direction Real Madrid wants to take given his exceptional attacking skills. However, he can’t restrain himself, as demonstrated in the recent Champions League match against Borussia Dortmund. In the dying moments, with Madrid leading 4-2 in stoppage time, he made a sprint to intercept a cross, enabling Vinícius to launch a counterattack that ultimately resulted in a hat-trick goal for him.
Ancelotti the Tinkerer
One issue is that Bellingham is being asked—or feels a natural obligation—to drop back and assist with the build-up play. During the match against Celta, he often fell into midfield, visibly directing his teammates on where to play the ball to facilitate effective progression from the back.
However, even Bellingham cannot replicate what Kroos brought to the team, and perhaps no one else can either. Without Kroos, they lack an orchestrator for their build-up play. They are attempting to recreate his influence collectively, as Billy Beane described in Moneyball, but the result is that everyone is struggling.
On Saturday night at Balaídos, Ancelotti introduced a new approach to Madrid’s early possession phases, with Aurélien Tchouaméni dropping deeper to function as the central player in a back three. The manager indicated that this adjustment was in response to Celta’s style of play, but it was also an attempt to rectify a faltering build-up.
In the match against Dortmund, he chose Federico Valverde as the sole pivot, positioning Luka Modric and Bellingham further up the field, while Ferland Mendy, who didn’t start against Celta, provided support in defense alongside Antonio Rüdiger and Éder Militão.
By dropping Tchouaméni deeper during possession, it potentially lures the opposing team’s press, allowing him to operate in less crowded areas of the pitch where he can receive the ball while facing forward. Utilizing Valverde in this role offers additional defensive cover against counterattacks, but neither option is ideal for building from the back.
So, what exactly did Toni Kroos contribute to the team?
Ripple Effects of Kroos Leaving Real Madrid
Kroos last wore a Real Madrid jersey six months ago, yet his influence continues to expand.
Last season, he averaged an impressive 112.7 touches per 90 minutes over 3,182 minutes across all competitions. This season, no Real Madrid player with at least 500 minutes played is even close to that average. Luka Modric, who is 39 and plays only intermittently, is the closest with 100.1 touches per 90 minutes, suggesting that the team is increasingly relying on him to provide some of the finesse that Kroos once offered. Following Modric, Éder Militão (82.4) and Aurélien Tchouaméni (81.6) have the highest touch counts.
Kroos created 62 chances in La Liga last season, a tally surpassed by only three midfielders—Ilkay Gündogan, Álex Baena, and Isco—all of whom were not their team’s primary playmakers. Only Aleix García attempted and completed more switches than Kroos. Perhaps most significantly, no midfielder in the league completed more successful long passes than Kroos last season, finishing with a total of 231.
Kroos attempted 2,499 passes last season, ranking behind only Kirian Rodríguez and García, and he boasted the highest completion rate in Spain at an impressive 94.7%.
Saying that Kroos retired at the peak of his career is an understatement. If the goal is to leave fans wanting more, then the German’s timing was, as always, impeccable.
While Madrid holds 60% possession this season—second in La Liga—it may create a misleading impression of how much they actually control the match. Most teams tend to sit back against Madrid due to their attacking threat, resulting in a lot of stagnant possession that leads to little outcome. This is reflected in their 14.0 non-penalty xG this season, placing them fifth in La Liga. With Kroos in the lineup, opponents were less comfortable sitting back, given his ability to threaten from various angles. He averaged 32.5 forward passes per game, whereas Modric is averaging only 22.5 this season.
However, quantifying Kroos’ influence through numbers can be misleading. It blurs the line between art and science. Kroos didn’t just have a vast array of passes at his disposal; he also possessed an innate ability to determine the precise moment to execute each one. He had an instinct for recognizing when the opposition’s defense was overloading to the left, enabling him to deliver a switch to the right. He understood when a backward pass was necessary to prevent a quick turnover.
Real Madrid’s Pressing Concern Due to Their Superstars and Shape
While the earlier discussion highlighted issues with their possession game, Real Madrid can still triumph through sheer attacking force, as evidenced by their comeback against Dortmund on Tuesday night, where they rallied from a two-goal deficit to win 5-2. However, their pressing game remains a significant concern that could be their downfall.
Real Madrid has long struggled with pressing effectively. Constructing a cohesive system is challenging when players like Vinícius and Mbappé, who are primarily goal scorers and attackers, are part of the lineup. This difficulty is one reason Madrid has typically favored pragmatic coaches over dogmatic ones, allowing them to read the emotional dynamics of the dressing room and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Federico Valverde has consistently been willing to work harder to allow his teammates to shine, and Eduardo Camavinga is also not hesitant to put in the effort. Jude Bellingham has been brought in to share the workload. Nevertheless, Valverde has logged an impressive 6,922 minutes for both club and country since the beginning of last season, the highest among all outfield players in the top five leagues during that period.
Bellingham, while lower on the list, has still accumulated 5,753 minutes for Real Madrid and England at just 21 years old, competing in a demanding midfield role. In the match against Dortmund, Valverde once again demonstrated his commitment by playing the full 90 minutes, with a match against Barcelona just four days away. He has started and completed all 14 of Real Madrid’s games this season.
A closer examination of the data reveals just how much this Real Madrid team is struggling when out of possession. They have already conceded two goals due to high turnovers this season, whereas they allowed only three from high turnovers across 51 matches last season. In the current campaign, they are facing an average of 1.9 direct attacks per game, compared to just 1.0 per match in 2023-24.
Although Madrid boasts some of the best defenders in the world, their current situation is concerning. They are likely to adopt a deeper defensive stance against stronger opponents and in away fixtures, which could provide some relief. However, against elite teams, a lack of pressure in their own half can lead to significant problems. It’s not uncommon to see opposing midfielders looking around for pressure that never arrives, as illustrated by Celta’s equalizer last weekend. The absence of intensity is particularly evident for Hugo Sotelo, who finds himself on the ball while Mbappé and Vinícius casually track back. Celta managed to create four clear chances, while Madrid could only muster one.
A similar scenario unfolded early in the match against Dortmund. As Mbappé casually moved between two defenders, Bellingham advanced, only for Dortmund to slice right through their defense, leaving Modric gesturing in frustration. This occurred within the first ten minutes of the game, and in less than ten seconds, without any Madrid player even challenging a Dortmund player, they found themselves in Madrid’s penalty area.
The main takeaway from Real Madrid’s start to the season is that replacing Toni Kroos is no easy task, impacting all facets of the team’s tactics. They have struggled in his absence but find themselves just three points off the La Liga lead and have lost only once in the Champions League, despite arguably being the weakest team over the 270 minutes they’ve played in that competition.
It would be unwise to advise Madrid against relying on dramatic comebacks as a strategy. While it’s not a replicable or straightforward approach, it remains their go-to tactic.
Greater challenges lie ahead, starting this weekend against Barcelona, who recently secured a three-goal victory against Bundesliga opponents. Will the flaws in Madrid’s performance resurface and lead to their downfall? Or will they continue to thrive on the chemistry and brilliance of their standout players?
While it’s easy to predict the former, it’s best not to count out the latter.
When is the El Classico?
The El Classico is on Sunday midnight, October 27, with the match set to kick off at 12:30 AM IST.
