India is set to face Syria in their last group match at the AFC Asian Cup on Tuesday at the Al Bayt Stadium. Anything other than a victory would lead to India’s elimination from the competition. In this tournament, India has yet to score a goal, while Syria has only conceded one. The challenge ahead for Igor Stimac’s team is significant, given these circumstances.
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How Things Stand as Of Now
Even in the event of India defeating Syria, their qualification for the next round is not assured. This is because they cannot secure a top-two position in Group B, with Australia and Uzbekistan holding six and four points, respectively, from their initial two games.
Group B:
| TEAM | POINTS | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 6 | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| Uzbekistan | 4 | 3 | 0 | +3 |
| Syria | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| India | 0 | 0 | 5 | -5 |
With only four of the best third-placed teams advancing from the six groups, India must not only secure a victory against Syria but also strive to improve their goal difference. Currently standing at -5 after the initial two games, it’s crucial for India to potentially win by a significant margin to enhance their chances of progressing to the next round.
Ranking of 3rd Placed Teams as it Stands
Third-Placed Teams at the 2023 AFC Asian Cup:
| TEAM | POINTS | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahrain | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Indonesia | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| China | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Oman | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Syria | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| Palestine | 1 | 2 | 5 | -3 |
How Can India Qualify?
Certainly, the following scenarios are relevant only if India secures a victory against Syria, regardless of the scoreline. In the case of a draw or loss, India would finish fourth, akin to the 2019 outcome but with fewer points. Now, let’s examine the conditions that need to unfold in each of the other groups for India to qualify as one of the four best third-placed teams.
Group A
In Group A, for India to overtake China and secure a spot among the four best third-placed teams, two specific outcomes are needed. Tajikistan must defeat Lebanon, and Qatar needs to emerge victorious against China in the final round of fixtures. In this scenario, with a win against Syria, India would surpass China, who would finish third in the group with two points.
Group C
In Group C, the dynamics involve Palestine and Hong Kong facing off in their final game, with Palestine even having the potential to aim for second place based on the outcome of the other match between UAE and Iran. Given that Palestine secured a point against UAE and Hong Kong hasn’t posed a significant threat, Palestine is optimistic about their chances in the upcoming game. If Palestine wins, it ensures that the third-placed team in Group C will be ranked above India, affecting India’s qualification prospects.
Group D
In Group D, Indonesia is considered a rank outsider against a Japanese side that is recovering from a recent loss to Iraq. There’s potential for damage to Japan’s goal difference, which could influence India’s standing. If India wins by one goal and Indonesia loses by four, India would surpass Indonesia in goal difference. However, Vietnam could play a role in this scenario by potentially beating Iraq in their last group game and finishing third. The most favorable outcomes for India would involve a substantial victory for Japan and Iraq avoiding defeat against Vietnam.
Group E
Here is what permutations & circumstances look like for India to qualify for the knockout stages of ongoing 2023 #AFC Asian Cup! 👀
— IFTWC – Indian Football (@IFTWC) January 22, 2024
Let's do it together, #BlueTigers! Jai Hind 🇮🇳 pic.twitter.com/FWKhPkZ3jU
In Group E, Bahrain, currently in third place, has a crucial match against Jordan. If Bahrain secures a point, they will advance, making it challenging for India to surpass them. India would prefer a Jordanian win and Korea avoiding defeat against Malaysia to improve their chances.
Group F
Moving to Group F, Oman and Kyrgyzstan, currently in third and fourth place, face each other in the last group game. An Omani win would secure Group F’s third-placed team (whether it’s them or Thailand) and make it unreachable for India. On the other hand, a Kyrgyz win, following an Indian win, would bring the competition down to goal difference between India and Kyrgyzstan. Ideally for India, a draw between Oman and Kyrgyzstan would be beneficial, preventing either team from reaching three points, which India could achieve with a win against Syria.
