Graham Potter is the new head coach of West Ham, but why did they choose the former Chelsea manager? Likely due to his impressive tenure at Brighton before his move to Stamford Bridge. Let’s dive into Potter’s statistics.
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Graham Potter: A Journey Back to Premier League Glory
Graham Potter has been out of work since April 2023, despite being widely regarded as one of the most promising English coaches of the last decade.
Amid the buzz surrounding Thomas Tuchel’s potential appointment as England’s manager, it was surprising that Potter’s name was often overlooked when Premier League roles became vacant.
The former Swansea City, Brighton, and Chelsea boss has been absent from the managerial scene since his departure from Stamford Bridge 21 months ago. Now, he’s returned, taking over the reins at West Ham following the dismissal of Julen Lopetegui. This presents a perfect opportunity for Potter to remind everyone why Chelsea made the move for him in the first place.
Potter’s career path has been far from conventional for an English manager. He started in 2011 with Swedish fourth-division side Östersund, guiding them to promotion to the top tier in just four years. In the 2017-18 season, his side even competed in the UEFA Europa League, notably defeating Arsenal 2-1 at the Emirates, though they were eliminated 4-2 on aggregate.
Following a brief stint at Swansea, Potter was appointed Brighton’s head coach in 2019, taking over from Chris Hughton. Over his 135 games at the Amex, he led the team to 42 wins, 46 draws, and 47 losses, but those numbers don’t fully capture the essence of his work.
Graham Potter’s Approach at Brighton: A Blueprint for West Ham
The challenge Potter faces at West Ham is similar to the one he encountered at Brighton, especially when compared to his time at Chelsea. For now, we’ll focus on what he achieved during his three years in Sussex.
Chris Hughton was let go by Brighton at the end of the 2018-19 season after a disappointing run of just three wins from their final 23 games (D6 L14), leaving them in 17th place in the Premier League. However, the decision wasn’t solely based on results. Despite Potter finishing 15th and 16th in his first two seasons, his position was never really in jeopardy. He managed to match Hughton’s nine league wins from 2018-19 in both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons.
Potter was tasked with evolving Brighton’s playing style, a challenge he took on successfully. The Seagulls’ possession rate, which had been 41.4% in 2018-19, increased to 52.2% in 2019-20. However, it wasn’t just about holding onto the ball; Potter made Brighton more dynamic off the ball as well.
Under Hughton, Brighton ranked last for high turnovers per game, which measures possessions that start in open play within 40 meters or less of the opponent’s goal, with just 4.8 in 2017-18 and 5.6 in 2018-19. Under Potter, the number increased significantly, reaching 6.7 in 2019-20, 8.4 in 2020-21, and 9.9 in 2021-22, placing them third behind only Liverpool and Manchester City. In comparison, West Ham ranked 15th for high turnovers last season (7.2) and are 10th this season (7.1).
Defensively, Potter’s impact was equally evident. Brighton made the fewest defensive actions per game under Hughton in 2017-18 (21.1) and were 18th in 2018-19 (24.2), which suggested a more passive defensive approach.
Under Potter, Brighton saw a significant increase in defensive actions. They were sixth in 2019-20 (28.4), second in 2020-21 (29.7), and third in 2021-22 (28.6). In contrast, West Ham ranked 17th for defensive actions per game last season (24.1) and are 14th this season (24.8).
Potter’s Pressing Evolution at Brighton
PPDA (passes per defensive action) measures how many opposition passes a pressing team allows before making a defensive action, effectively gauging the intensity of a team’s press. A lower PPDA reflects a more aggressive pressing style.
Under Hughton, Brighton had the highest PPDA in the league in 2017-18 (17.0) and the third-highest in 2018-19 (15.2). However, Potter significantly reduced this, bringing it down to 11.5 in both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons (seventh-lowest in 2019-20, sixth-lowest in 2020-21), and to 10.8 (fifth-lowest) in his final full season at Brighton. In comparison, West Ham had the third-highest PPDA last season (16.3) and the fourth-highest this season (13.4).
As shown in the graphic below, Brighton’s playing style underwent a significant transformation from 2017-18 onward. Under Potter, the team moved away from a fast, direct approach to a slower, more intricate style, similar to that of top teams like Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea.
While immediate improvements in league position were modest—finishing 15th in Potter’s first season and 16th in his second—Brighton’s patience paid off with a ninth-place finish in 2021-22. By September 2022, they were sitting in fourth place when Chelsea came calling.
Potter’s Impact at Brighton: Solid Defensively but Opportunities Missed
Potter succeeded in making Brighton a tougher team to beat. Under Hughton, they lost 20 games in the 2018-19 season, but under Potter, they were beaten only 11 times in his third and final season after two campaigns with 15 losses each.
Offensively, Brighton also saw an increase in their creation, improving from an average of 9.8 shots per game in 2018-19 to 12.2 in 2019-20 and 12.8 in both 2020-21 and 2021-22. However, this didn’t immediately translate into a significant rise in goals. They scored 35 goals in Hughton’s last season, 39 in Potter’s first, and 40 in the next. A bigger improvement came in 2021-22 when Brighton finished ninth, although they still only scored 42 goals.
Despite being Brighton’s best season under Potter, some underlying numbers were even better in 2020-21. They faced just 358 shots (the fourth-fewest in the Premier League) and conceded only 35.8 expected goals (xG), the third-lowest in the league, while recording their highest xG for under Potter (51.7 xG, 11th-best). The problem was their actual goals conceded; they let in 46 goals, allowing over 10 more than expected. Had they matched their xG against, they would have had the second-best defensive record in the league.
Brighton’s struggles weren’t limited to defense. They also missed numerous scoring opportunities. Despite registering the third-highest total shots in the Premier League in 2021-22 (489), they consistently underperformed against their xG in all three of Potter’s full Premier League seasons: by 7.2 in 2019-20, 11.7 in 2020-21, and 5.2 in 2021-22.
In fact, when factoring in Brighton’s xG underperformance in 2020-21 (11.7) alongside their defensive underperformance (10.2), they could have seen a 22-goal swing by simply matching their expected numbers.
Improving Conversion and Control: Potter’s Challenge at West Ham
Brighton struggled with shot conversion under Potter, having the third-worst rate in the Premier League in 2019-20 (8.4%) and the lowest big chance conversion rate (22.6%). This trend continued in the following two seasons with conversion rates of 8.2% in 2020-21 and 8.6% in 2021-22.
West Ham will hope Potter can address this issue, especially given their current 8.2% conversion rate, which ranks as the fourth-worst in the league, alongside a 5.1 underperformance in relation to their expected goals (xG). While missed high-quality chances are often beyond a manager’s control, the recurring issue under Potter at Brighton and later at Chelsea is a concern. At Chelsea, despite an impressive start, he underperformed in terms of xG by 7.4 (scoring 21 goals from 28.4 xG) during his brief tenure, which was the worst differential in the league at the time.
Despite this, Potter made history as just the second English manager to win five Champions League games in a single season, a feat previously achieved by Bobby Robson in 2002-03.
The main reason West Ham turned to Potter is likely his ability to implement a clear playing style and lay strong foundations for the club’s future. West Ham, having won a European trophy only 18 months ago, will be hoping for a similar progression in style under Potter’s guidance. Compared to Moyes’ direct approach, which fans tolerated only due to results, and Lopetegui’s brief tenure, Potter will need to instill more control and evolution to succeed at West Ham.
Potter’s Vision for West Ham: Building Trust, Personality, and a Clear Identity
At his first press conference as West Ham boss on Thursday, Potter said: “In my experience, I think that if you can build a team that is recognisable on the pitch, that the supporters can identify with and be proud of, you can get trust between the squad and the fans, which is key.
“We need to show personality, togetherness, fight and quality, because we know the supporters will buy into that and then they’ll give us everything. That’s the job.“
“Having everyone aligned in terms of what we want to achieve, how we want to play football and how we use the resources we have is really important. I want us all to enjoy the journey, and to be excited about it.”
While some may still remember his underwhelming time at Chelsea, it was Potter’s achievements at Brighton that ultimately convinced West Ham to hire him. While immediate results may not drastically improve, the club would benefit from the solid foundations Potter built at Brighton, which remain his most impressive accomplishment.
Robert De Zerbi arguably took Brighton to the next level, and Fabian Hürzeler has started well too, but it’s hard to imagine Brighton being where they are today without Potter’s groundwork.
The big question is: can he replicate that success in East London?
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FAQs
What was Graham Potter’s role at Brighton before joining West Ham?
Graham Potter was the manager of Brighton for three years, where he evolved the team’s playing style, improved their defensive actions, and focused on building a clear identity, despite modest results in terms of league position.
How did Potter transform Brighton’s playing style?
Under Potter, Brighton increased possession from 41.4% to 52.2%, became more aggressive off the ball, and significantly improved their high turnovers and defensive actions, progressing toward a more intricate style of play.
Why was Graham Potter’s tenure at Chelsea considered disappointing?
Potter’s time at Chelsea was marked by underperformance, as his team underperformed their expected goals (xG) and had the joint-lowest points per game of any manager to oversee 20+ games at Chelsea, despite a strong start.
What did Potter say about building trust with West Ham supporters?
Potter emphasized the importance of creating a recognisable team that fans can identify with, highlighting qualities like personality, togetherness, and fight, as well as aligning everyone’s goals for the future.
Can Graham Potter replicate his success at Brighton with West Ham?
While immediate results may not change drastically, Potter’s solid foundation-building skills at Brighton have convinced West Ham to give him the reins, hoping he can bring similar stability and growth to the club.
