New Zealand (NZ) is set to face South Africa (SA) in the second semi-final of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 at Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on Wednesday, March 5.
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New Zealand vs South Africa: Preview
In a cricketing landscape where strong opinions are often tempered, Herschelle Gibbs is rarely one to hold back. Yet, on Tuesday, even he hesitated before conceding, “Not a lot to choose between those two.”
Gibbs, speaking from a Cape Town gym, was contemplating which team might have the edge in the Champions Trophy semi-final between New Zealand and South Africa. While his comment may have been offhand, it reflects the genuine difficulty in separating these two evenly matched sides.
Their recent schedules have mirrored each other closely. New Zealand arrived in Lahore on Monday after facing India in Dubai—India being the only team in the tournament permitted to play outside Pakistan. South Africa, having also spent time in Dubai, traveled to Lahore the same day after an 18-hour layover.
While their last ODI meeting feels distant, it was just 24 days ago—at the same venue. New Zealand won that Tri-Nations clash by six wickets with eight balls remaining, but South Africa’s squad for this match looks significantly different. Only four players from that game—Temba Bavuma, Heinrich Klaasen, Wiaan Mulder, and Keshav Maharaj—remain in the Champions Trophy squad. In contrast, New Zealand’s lineup has remained largely unchanged, with only Kyle Jamieson being a new addition.
Here we go again—South Africa and New Zealand, two of the best teams never to have won a World Cup, meet once more in a high-stakes knockout match. Both sides have lifted this trophy before, back when it was called the ICC Knockout and carried a different significance in the global game. Winning it now won’t diminish their hunger for the ultimate prize, but it could serve as a stepping stone toward 2027, when South Africa will co-host the World Cup alongside Zimbabwe and Namibia.
For the Proteas, this tournament is part of a long-term build-up, but the pressure to return home with something tangible remains intense. This is another opportunity to break their knockout curse. Meanwhile, New Zealand, still haunted by their near-miss in the 2019 World Cup final, carry their own scars. Yet, they seem to shoulder them with less weight—perhaps due to a smaller cricketing population or a culture of resilience. These are thoughts for later. For now, both teams have landed the knockout fixture they might have preferred.
Form-wise, South Africa enter the match on a high, securing victories over Afghanistan and England after a rough patch of three consecutive ODI losses. New Zealand, meanwhile, suffered their first defeat in five ODIs against India on Sunday.
Statistically, the two teams remain difficult to separate. Both have posted a 300-plus total in the tournament. Both have a batter—Tom Latham for New Zealand and Ryan Rickelton for South Africa—among the tournament’s top 10 run-scorers. However, New Zealand have three bowlers—Matt Henry, Will O’Rourke, and Michael Bracewell—among the top 10 wicket-takers, while South Africa have only Wiaan Mulder. On the economy rate front, Mulder and Maharaj feature in the top 10, with Bracewell being New Zealand’s sole representative.
Gibbs likely didn’t sift through all these details before making his remark, but the numbers reinforce his point. There is, indeed, very little to separate these two teams.
Facing each other instead of India or Australia may boost their chances of reaching the final. Playing in Pakistan, despite arriving from Dubai at different times on Monday, could also suit them. With batting-friendly conditions and firepower in both line-ups, this match has all the makings of a high-scoring thriller. Their bowling attacks are evenly matched, though injuries have impacted their pace options. The battle between towering quicks Marco Jansen and Kyle Jamieson, or the duel between strike bowlers Kagiso Rabada and Matt Henry, could prove decisive.
Spin could be the key differentiator. South Africa have backed Keshav Maharaj as their lone specialist, while New Zealand boast both captain Mitchell Santner and offspinner Michael Bracewell. Maharaj has suggested that spinners should play a containing role in this tournament, making economy rates a crucial metric to watch.
Ultimately, this promises to be a well-balanced contest, free from the media frenzy that surrounds matches against cricket’s “Big Three,” but rich with history. New Zealand famously knocked South Africa out of the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, but while that storyline lingers, much has changed over the past decade.
A loss here may not feel as catastrophic in an era where ICC tournaments are annual, but for teams that have spent decades chasing a major trophy, the stakes remain high. Only one of them will have the chance to lift silverware this time.
New Zealand vs South Africa: Head-to-head
- Total Matches Played: 73
- New Zealand Wins: 43
- South Africa Wins: 25
- Tied Matches: 0
- No Result Matches: 5
- First-ever Fixture: February 25, 1992
- Most-recent Fixture: February 10, 2025
New Zealand vs South Africa: Pitch Report and Weather Conditions
In five ODIs played this year, the average first-innings total stands at 316.5, with victories evenly split between teams setting a target and those chasing. The pitch is expected to favor batters, making it a challenging day for bowlers.
Although Heinrich Klaasen noted some drizzle upon South Africa’s arrival on Monday, the weather for the semi-final is predicted to be mild and clear, with no rain and a high of 23°C. Notably, Lahore has witnessed four of the tournament’s five highest scores, reinforcing its reputation as a high-scoring venue.
New Zealand vs South Africa: Recent Form
South Africa: WWLLL (last five completed matches, most recent first)
New Zealand: LWWWW
New Zealand vs South Africa: Team News and Predicted XI
New Zealand – Team News
New Zealand’s main selection dilemma revolves around which one of Will Young, Rachin Ravindra, Devon Conway, or Daryl Mitchell will miss out. Conway was benched against India in favor of Mitchell, who featured against Pakistan but not Bangladesh.
Both Young and Ravindra have notched centuries in this tournament, making it likely that the decision will come down to Mitchell or Conway, who has managed scores of 30 and 10 so far. If it’s a choice between Nathan Smith and Kyle Jamieson, Smith could get the nod due to his stronger batting capabilities.
New Zealand – Predicted XI
- Will Young
- Rachin Ravindra/Devon Conway
- Kane Williamson
- Daryl Mitchell
- Tom Latham (wk)
- Glenn Phillips
- Michael Bracewell
- Mitchell Santner (capt)
- Matt Henry
- Kyle Jamieson
- Will O’Rourke
South Africa – Team News
Temba Bavuma and Tony de Zorzi have recovered from the illness that sidelined them against England and should be available, though de Zorzi is likely to step aside for Aiden Markram, who cleared his fitness test on Tuesday.
The bowling unit is expected to remain the same, featuring two allrounders, a specialist spinner, and two pacers. Meanwhile, George Linde has been brought in as a traveling reserve and was set to join the squad in Lahore on Tuesday night.
South Africa – Predicted XI
- Temba Bavuma (capt)
- Ryan Rickelton
- Rassie van der Dussen
- Aiden Markram
- Heinrich Klaasen (wk)
- David Miller
- Wiaan Mulder
- Marco Jansen
- Keshav Maharaj
- Kagiso Rabada
- Lungi Ngidi
New Zealand vs South Africa: Players To Watch Out For
Kane Williamson (New Zealand)
Kane Williamson boasts back-to-back ODI centuries against South Africa, though they were six years apart. He scored an unbeaten 106 against them in Birmingham in June 2019 and followed it up with 133* at this very venue during the tri-series leading up to the tournament—though that was against a weakened South African side. With an average of 57.35 against South Africa, his highest against any team except Zimbabwe, Williamson remains a key figure in New Zealand’s batting lineup. His importance was evident in his 81 against India in Dubai, where he kept his team in contention despite the eventual defeat.
At 34, like many seasoned players in this competition, Williamson may not have another chance to lift an ODI trophy, making this campaign all the more significant for him.
David Miller (South Africa)
Could this be the final time 35-year-old David Miller features in an ODI tournament for South Africa? No one has outright said it, but if it is, what impact will he have? His opportunities in the competition have been limited so far—batting only in the 43rd over against Afghanistan and sealing the win against England. However, he has played crucial roles in South Africa’s recent white-ball knockout games.
In the 2023 ODI World Cup semi-final, his century helped South Africa recover from 24 for 4, while in the 2024 T20 World Cup final, he looked set to take his team to the title before a stunning boundary catch ended his innings on 21 off 17. Known for delivering on big occasions, Miller has admitted he’s taking his career year by year, making knockout appearances increasingly rare. Given all he has contributed, he will be eager to play a decisive role in securing a title for South Africa.
New Zealand vs South Africa: Prediction
Scenario 1
- Toss: New Zealand win the toss and opt to bowl first
- Powerplay Score: 60-70
- South Africa Total: 320-330
- Match Result: New Zealand win the match
Scenario 2
- Toss: South Africa win the toss and opt to bowl first
- Powerplay Score: 50-60
- New Zealand Total: 310-320
- Match Result: South Africa win the match
When and Where To Watch New Zealand vs South Africa LIVE? Broadcast and Streaming Details
The ICC Men’s Champions Trophy 2025 second semi-final between New Zealand and South Africa is scheduled for Wednesday, March 5, at the Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore in Pakistan. The match will commence at 2:30 PM IST, with the toss set for 2:00 PM. Fans can watch the live broadcast on the Star Sports Network, while live streaming will be available on the JioHotstar app and website.
Read More: Champions Trophy 2025: Kohli’s Brilliant 84 Drives India Into The Champions Trophy Final
FAQs
Who has the upper hand between New Zealand and South Africa in the Champions Trophy semifinal?
Both teams are evenly matched, with similar recent form, travel schedules, and tournament performances, making it difficult to predict a clear favorite.
How have New Zealand and South Africa performed in ODIs against each other?
In 73 ODIs, New Zealand has won 43 matches, while South Africa has secured 25 victories. Five games ended with no result.
What is the pitch and weather forecast for the semifinal in Lahore?
The pitch is expected to be batting-friendly, with an average first-innings score of 316.5 in ODIs this year. The weather is mild and clear, with no rain expected.
Is this David Miller’s last ODI tournament for South Africa?
While Miller hasn’t confirmed his future, at 35, this could be his final ODI tournament, making his role in the knockout match crucial.
How important is Kane Williamson for New Zealand in this match?
Williamson has an outstanding record against South Africa and remains New Zealand’s key anchor, as seen in his fighting 81 against India earlier in the tournament.
