With a reputation for outperforming its size and a record that would be the envy of most footballing nations, Croatia arrived in Dallas knowing England would be a formidable test — and hoping to leave one of the tournament’s genuine favourites reeling.
This Croatian side possesses a formidable résumé: consecutive World Cup podium finishes, a manager with victories over giants like Brazil and France, and the legendary Luka Modrić embarking on his fifth tournament at the age of 40.
Nobody picks against Croatia lightly.
Except on matchday one. Then, have at it.
Table of Contents
Never Pick Against Croatia. Except on Matchday One.
England beat them 4-2 at AT&T Stadium on Wednesday, extending one of football’s stranger statistical streaks. Croatia has now lost their tournament opener in four of their past six World Cups.
| Croatia’s World Cup Opening Results (2002-2026) | Year | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Lost | — | Defeat |
| 2006 | Lost | — | Defeat |
| 2014 | Lost | — | Defeat |
| 2018 | Beat Nigeria | — | Win |
| 2022 | Drew with Morocco | — | Draw |
| 2026 | Lost to England (4-2) | — | Defeat |
Since 2002, only Australia has lost as many World Cup opening matches at the finals.
It is a startling number for a team that is ranked 11th in the world by FIFA and regularly cited as genuine dark-horse contenders capable of going as deep as anyone. Teams with that kind of pedigree are not supposed to make a habit of losing the first game. Croatia has built one anyway.
The Strange Paradox at the Heart of Croatian Football
Twenty-four hours before the match, Modrić had been asked about a country of under four million people that keeps arriving in World Cup knockout rounds. “We respect everyone, but we’re not afraid of anyone,” he said.
That is almost certainly true. Croatia has demonstrated, repeatedly, that fear is not the issue. In 2018, their path to the final included extra-time scares in three straight knockout matches. In 2022, they overcame elimination panic to reach the third-place play-off. The resilience, once the tournament is underway, is genuine and documented.
But the opening match. The first game. The moment when everyone else begins and Croatia, perennially, falls behind.
Wednesday in Dallas: How It Fell Apart
Croatia was a frustrating watch for its fans on Wednesday evening. Four times the ball hit the net before half-time — only the eighth World Cup match in history to feature both sides scoring twice before the break, and just the second such match since 2002.
Every goal ran straight through either Croatia’s lapses in class or their individual errors. Sometimes both in the same minute.
Croatia’s Moments of Brilliance
Their goals were not the problem. When Croatia was at its best, it was a masterclass in efficiency.
The first equaliser came in one fluid sequence: Luka Vušković won the ball back in midfield, drove it forward, and slid a pass to Petar Sučić, who skipped past John Stones and rolled the ball into Martin Baturina’s stride. The finish was composed. The second equaliser was equally clean — Mario Pašalić’s ball over the top found Ivan Perišić, whose header dropped precisely for Petar Musa to convert.
At its best, Croatia’s play is constructed and purposeful.
Croatia’s Moments of Costly Error
Their defensive lapses were equally efficient at producing goals, and they usually ended in ones.
It started with Modrić, who fouled Noni Madueke attempting to clear a corner and gave away the game’s first penalty. Dominik Livaković saved the initial strike — but had already strayed off his line. Harry Kane revealed post-match that he had specifically scouted Livaković’s tendency to move early. A stutter step drew the goalkeeper out. On the retake, Kane buried it.
Kane’s second was a free header from another Declan Rice corner. Croatia had the physical size to defend him. They did not bother marking him at all. It was a frankly too-easy gift to a player who had just come off 61 goals in 51 games for Bayern Munich. This version of Kane does not need a lucky bounce or a shove — just a yard of space. Croatia gave him several.
Two minutes into the second half, Bellingham ran onto a ball over the top and finished low to make it 3-2. The next ten minutes were, manager Zlatko Dalić told reporters, “really quite bad” — Croatia pinned in their own half with no momentum to speak of. Somewhere in the middle of it, Modrić was substituted, his role in conceding the opening goal the defining image of his evening. Marcus Rashford added a fourth before the final whistle.
The Croatian Post-Mortem
Dalić’s post-match assessment was measured but illuminating.
“We were at our worst exactly where we knew the greatest danger lay,” he said. England’s successful attacks had come specifically off corners and deep balls down the right side. “We reacted poorly to the deep ball and rotated poorly.”
Joško Gvardiol identified a “drop in concentration” for Bellingham’s goal.
“They’re very dangerous, and we knew small mistakes would cost us,” the Manchester City defender told reporters. “That’s exactly what happened today. We had a couple of chances ourselves, and of course, so did they, but we simply weren’t at the level needed against a team like that.”
Baturina — who scored the best goal of the night and still ended up on the losing side — put it with economical honesty: “Maybe we were a bit short on luck, but against a team like this, every mistake is fatal.”
Dalić acknowledged the tournament implications directly. “Quite simply, after this defeat we don’t have much room left for error, we don’t have much room for another bad match or mistakes like these. I wouldn’t say it was a bad match on our part overall, but there were a lot of mistakes that a quality opponent punished us for.”
Why Does This Keep Happening?
The structural question — why Croatia, of all teams, keeps losing opening matches — does not have a single clean answer.
Part of it is the nature of what makes Croatia good at World Cups. Their greatest performances tend to come in knockout football, where the weight of an elimination game focuses the experienced core and where the tournament’s slower tactical evolution favours Croatia’s patient, experienced approach. In the group stage, when the pace is higher and the physical intensity most demanding, they can look flatter.
Part of it may also be the specific pressure of the first match. Croatia’s senior players have enormous collective experience of major tournaments, but that experience also comes with the awareness of what is at stake. They came out of the gates with an aggressive press against England — “eager to force them into costly mistakes“, as the early evidence suggested — only for the shoe to quickly find the other foot.
The defensive lapses — Modrić’s foul on the corner, the failure to track Kane at the set piece, the rotational errors that Dalić identified — are not characteristic of how Croatia defends in the knockout rounds. They suggest a team not yet fully settled into the rhythm of the tournament.
The cruel irony is that Croatia’s best football tends to come when they have their backs against the wall. The 2018 run to the final began after nervy, grinding results. The 2022 semi-final came through cumulative resilience rather than early dominance. It is possible that Croatia, historically, needs adversity to unlock its best.
If that is true, they have it now.
What Comes Next: Panama and Ghana Await
Panama and Ghana are still to come, and both offer a more navigable path back into contention. Ghana’s 1-0 win over their own matchday-one opponent did not inspire particular confidence in either nation as a dangerous opponent for the level Croatia represents.
But the arithmetic has become unforgiving.
“We don’t have much room for error,” Dalić said. That is an understatement. With three points for two wins representing the probable qualification threshold, Croatia need to take maximum points from Panama and Ghana and hope the result against England becomes less significant in the overall standings.
They have recovered from longer odds before. The 2018 run — extra-time scares in three consecutive knockout rounds before the final — remains one of the most extraordinary sequences in modern World Cup history. A group stage recovery from an opening defeat is considerably more straightforward than any of those moments.
The Ceiling Question
The most interesting observation to make about Croatia is not tactical. It is hypothetical.
What would Croatian football look like if they ever seized a World Cup from the very first match? If this experienced, capable group — Modrić, Gvardiol, Vušković, Baturina, Sučić — started a tournament the way they finish one, what would the ceiling actually be?
Croatia, the nation that punches above its weight more consistently than almost any other in world football, once again finds itself throwing those punches from the back foot. As a pattern, it is both admirable and maddening. The recovery tends to come. The question is whether this time, the hole dug in Dallas is too deep.
Panama and Ghana are not England.
FAQs
How many World Cup opening matches has Croatia lost?
Croatia has lost their tournament opener in four of their past six World Cups — in 2002, 2006, 2014, and now 2026. Their other results were a win over Nigeria in 2018 and a draw with Morocco in 2022. Since 2002, only Australia has lost as many matchday-one games at the finals.
What were Croatia’s main errors against England?
Modrić fouled Madueke from a corner to concede a penalty. Livaković moved early allowing Kane’s retaken penalty to go in. Kane was left completely unmarked from a corner to score a free header. The defensive line failed to deal with the ball over the top for Bellingham’s goal. Dalić specifically identified poor rotation and reaction to deep balls as systemic problems.
What did Zlatko Dalić say after the defeat?
Dalić said: “We were at our worst exactly where we knew the greatest danger lay” and acknowledged Croatia “don’t have much room left for error.” He described the ten minutes after Bellingham’s goal as “really quite bad” and noted there were too many mistakes punished by a quality opponent.
Can Croatia still qualify from their group?
Yes. Panama and Ghana await, and Croatia’s considerable quality makes them significant favourites in both matches. Winning both would likely secure qualification, though goal difference and the FIFA head-to-head tiebreaker rules would determine final standings depending on England and Ghana’s own results.
Why does Croatia keep losing opening World Cup matches?
There is no single clean explanation. Their best performances tend to come in knockout football where accumulated experience and resilience shine. In group stage football — faster, more physically intense, less tactically defined — they can look flatter. The individual errors against England were not characteristic of how Croatia typically defends once into the knockout rounds.
