Arsenal face a tough test in their UEFA Champions League quarter-final against Real Madrid, but the reigning champions’ uninspiring performance against Atlético revealed their weaknesses.
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A Blueprint for Arsenal? Madrid’s Vulnerabilities Exposed
Arsenal fans watching the action unfold in Madrid last night found themselves in a tricky dilemma.
Their dominant first-leg victory over PSV Eindhoven had all but secured a place in the Champions League quarter-finals, meaning they were set to face either Real Madrid or Atlético Madrid in the next round. Neither option was particularly appealing.
Madrid are the undisputed giants of this competition, having lifted the trophy a record 15 times—more than double any other team. Meanwhile, Atlético, despite never winning it, have consistently gone deep under Diego Simeone and are always capable of grinding out results against top opposition.
In the end, Madrid advanced (as expected), but only after a penalty shootout and a stroke of luck—a controversial decision ruled out Julián Álvarez’s penalty based on what can only be described as debatable video evidence suggesting a double touch.
Still, they made it through, and that’s what counts. Their title defense continues.
While many Arsenal supporters would have preferred to avoid the reigning champions, Real Madrid’s lackluster display against Atlético suggests they may not be as formidable as their trophy haul implies.
A week earlier at the Bernabéu, Atlético surprised many by dominating possession—a rare sight for a Diego Simeone side. However, in the second leg, they reverted to their defensive roots, sitting back to protect their lead after scoring their fastest-ever Champions League goal just 27 seconds in. Their disciplined defensive performance frustrated Madrid and, in doing so, provided Arsenal with a potential game plan to exploit.
Madrid registered just six shots in normal time, including a penalty, and their non-penalty xG of 0.21 was their third-lowest in any Champions League or La Liga match over the past decade. Even after 30 minutes of extra time, they had only managed 0.36 xG, despite relentlessly chasing a goal from the opening minute.
Shutting Down the Best: How Atlético Neutralized Madrid’s Star Attack
Real Madrid arguably boast the most lethal front four in world football, yet Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo struggled to create anything of note against Atlético’s disciplined low block.
Rodrygo was the only one to register a shot on target, a speculative effort worth just 0.03 xG. Mbappé made a key contribution by winning a penalty—brought down by a desperate Clément Lenglet—but failed to take a single shot himself. It was only the second time since September 2021 that the Frenchman failed to register a shot in a full game for either Real Madrid or PSG, and this time, he played 120 minutes.
Atlético executed their defensive plan to near perfection, blocking the central channels and shifting seamlessly in a pendulum-like motion as Madrid switched play. One wide midfielder would drop into the backline, forming a five-man defense, while the other pressed aggressively. Their relentless work rate stifled Madrid, limiting them to just 22.3% of their attacking touches through the middle third of the pitch.
The only time Atlético slipped up was allowing Madrid to break quickly, leading to Mbappé winning the penalty. Aside from that, Madrid’s attack was kept silent—Vinícius’ missed spot-kick being the only stroke of luck Atlético needed.
Targeting Madrid’s Weakness: Arsenal’s Defensive Edge and Saka’s Potential Return
When Atlético attacked, they focused on transitions down their right flank—likely aiming to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Ferland Mendy, who endured a shaky game. This approach was evident in the numbers, with 54.1% of their attacking touches coming down that side, including the only goal of the match, which stemmed from a cross from the right.
Mikel Arteta isn’t averse to prioritizing defensive solidity, and Arsenal’s record this season reflects that. They have conceded the lowest expected goals (xG) in both the Premier League (24.6 xG) and the Champions League (8.8 xG). They have also let in fewer goals than any other team in England’s top flight (24) and rank second in Europe’s premier club competition (6), behind only Inter (2).
Adding to their advantage, Arsenal have a potent right-sided attacker who could exploit Mendy’s frailties—if he recovers in time. Bukayo Saka, a key figure in Arsenal’s attack, is progressing well from a hamstring injury. “His recovery is going really well,” Arteta said over the weekend. “We are hopeful that he’ll be back in a few weeks.” His return for the first leg in early April could be a game-changer.
Arsenal’s Tactical Dilemma: A Defensive Battle Against the Unpredictable
Arsenal have struggled for firepower in recent weeks, with Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, and Gabriel Jesus sidelined—Havertz and Jesus ruled out for the season. Given their depleted attack, a pragmatic approach focused on defensive solidity and blocking Madrid’s central channels could be their best bet.
Fortunately, they have the personnel for such a task. Gabriel Magalhães and William Saliba are not just elite defenders but also willing to put in the hard graft. Meanwhile, Jurriën Timber, Riccardo Calafiori, and Myles Lewis-Skelly bring both physicality and technical skill, making them well-suited to frustrating Madrid’s attacking threats.
With that in mind, some Arsenal fans may actually see Madrid as a preferable quarter-final opponent over Atlético. A defensively disciplined Atlético side might have been a tougher nut to crack for an Arsenal team missing key attackers.
However, there’s one major variable that logic can’t account for—Real Madrid’s Champions League mystique. Time and again, they find ways to win matches they have no right to, defying the odds in ways no other team seems capable of. Carlo Ancelotti’s side struggled to break down Atlético’s low block, but as history has shown, they somehow manage to get over the line when it matters most.
Arsenal, by contrast, lack a significant Champions League pedigree, which could prove decisive in a high-stakes encounter. But if Tuesday’s Madrid performance proved anything, it’s that the reigning champions are not invincible. Atlético provided a defensive blueprint, and if Arsenal can execute it to perfection, they have every reason to believe they can cause an upset.
FAQs
Can Arsenal beat Real Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals?
Arsenal can take confidence from Atlético Madrid’s defensive masterclass, which exposed Real Madrid’s struggles against a low block. A disciplined approach could give them a real chance.
What weaknesses did Atlético Madrid expose in Real Madrid’s attack?
Despite having world-class forwards like Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Jude Bellingham, and Rodrygo, Madrid struggled to create clear chances. They managed just six shots in normal time, with only 0.21 non-penalty xG.
How can Arsenal take advantage of Real Madrid’s defensive vulnerabilities?
Atlético targeted Madrid’s left flank, exploiting Ferland Mendy’s defensive frailties. Arsenal could adopt a similar strategy, especially with Bukayo Saka expected to return from injury.
What is Arsenal’s defensive record this season?
Arsenal boast the best defensive stats in both the Premier League and Champions League, conceding the lowest xG in both competitions. Their solid backline could frustrate Madrid’s attacking threats.
Why is Real Madrid always dangerous in the Champions League?
Madrid have an uncanny ability to win games despite struggling in open play. Their Champions League pedigree, combined with Carlo Ancelotti’s tactical nous, makes them a formidable opponent in any scenario.
