Tuesday’s Champions League encounter at Estadio de San Mamés takes center stage in our Athletic Club vs Arsenal prediction and preview. Will Arsenal begin their continental campaign on a winning note?
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Athletic Club vs Arsenal: Preview
The UEFA Champions League season opener between Athletic Club and Arsenal brings together a tournament contender and what might be considered an underdog.
While describing Athletic Club as outsiders may seem unfair given their fourth-place La Liga finish and Europa League semi-final appearance last term, the Opta supercomputer’s analysis tells a different story. After running 10,000 tournament simulations, Athletic Club emerged as champions in merely 0.5% of scenarios.
This stems partly from their challenging fixture list – they face the joint-eighth most difficult opposition based on the average Opta Power Rating of their rivals through the Opta Power Rankings. In contrast, Arsenal enjoys the second-most favorable schedule of opponents by this metric, explaining their position as second favorites for the 2025-26 Champions League title, trailing only Liverpool.
Regardless of opposition quality, the Gunners boast an impressive recent pedigree at this tournament level. Over the previous two Champions League campaigns, only Real Madrid (33) earned more points during the group/league stages.
Arsenal secured 10 victories while suffering just two defeats across 14 matches. Notably, their sole tournament losses last season came exclusively against the eventual finalists – twice falling to Paris Saint-Germain and once to Internazionale.
Their defensive solidity has been fundamental to this relative success. Under Mikel Arteta’s guidance, Arsenal have shipped only 18 goals across 24 Champions League encounters – an exceptional rate of just 0.75 per match. However, maintaining this stellar record on Tuesday could prove challenging should William Saliba remain sidelined.
Martin Ødegaard’s participation appears doubtful following his injury during Saturday’s commanding 3-0 victory against Nottingham Forest. While Christian Nørgaard is approaching fitness, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka will all miss the trip to Spain.
Arsenal’s defensive statistics in this tournament rank among the finest in Champions League history. When examining teams with 20 or more matches under a single manager, only four squads have bettered their goals-conceded average: Fabio Capello’s Milan (0.38), Louis van Gaal’s Ajax (0.63), Frank Rijkaard’s Barcelona (0.68) and Ernesto Valverde’s Barcelona (0.71).
Valverde now leads Athletic Club and, similar to Arteta, faces his own injury concerns. Iñigo Lekue appears nearest to first-team availability, though star winger Nico Williams seems unlikely to participate. Unai Egiluz and Yeray Álvarez remain longer-term casualties.
Following an encouraging La Liga start with consecutive victories over Sevilla, Rayo Vallecano and Real Betis, Athletic Club encountered an unexpected setback on Saturday – falling 1-0 at home to Alavés through an unfortunate Alex Berenguer own goal just before the hour mark at Estadio de San Mamés.
Drawing from his experience guiding Barcelona to two La Liga crowns, Valverde boasts an impressive Champions League managerial record with just nine defeats in 42 matches (23 victories). Among Spanish coaches with 10 or more European encounters, only Pep Guardiola maintains a superior loss percentage (17.1%) compared to Valverde’s 21.4%.
Valverde previously steered Athletic Club at this elite level during the 2014-15 campaign. Since his 2022 return, they have triumphed in six of seven European fixtures at San Mamés. The solitary exception came against Manchester United – an ominous precedent considering Arsenal’s superior quality.
The Gunners possess a striker with outstanding recent European pedigree. Viktor Gyökeres contributed to seven goals across eight Champions League appearances last term (netting six with one assist for Sporting CP). His involvement rate of every 87 minutes was exceptional; only Saka (95) achieved a better minutes-per-goal-involvement ratio below 100 throughout 2024-25.
Should the visitors prevail, they would become the first team in European Cup/Champions League history to claim six straight victories against Spanish opposition. Over the past two campaigns, Arsenal have overcome Real Madrid, Sevilla (twice each) and Girona. They possess an excellent opportunity to extend this remarkable sequence with Athletic Club.
Athletic Club vs Arsenal: Head-to-Head
This marks the inaugural competitive encounter between Athletic Club and Arsenal, representing only the third occasion the Spanish outfit have met English opposition in European Cup/UEFA Champions League competition. Their previous experiences saw elimination by Manchester United at the quarter-final stage in 1956-57 and defeat to Liverpool one round prior in 1983-84.
Arsenal dominated when these teams clashed in last month’s Emirates Cup Final at the Emirates Stadium, securing a convincing 3-0 triumph. Viktor Gyökeres opened the scoring for the Gunners in the 34th minute, with Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz subsequently adding their names to the scoresheet.
The North London club also carries momentum from recent Spanish expeditions, having claimed victory in their last three away fixtures in the country. They overcame Girona and Real Madrid during the previous campaign and defeated Sevilla in 2023-24 – all three encounters ending with identical 2-1 scorelines.
Athletic Club vs Arsenal: Team News and Predicted Lineup
Athletic Club – Team News
Arsenal have long pursued Nico Williams, but the winger will be unable to display his abilities against his potential suitors on Tuesday evening. Williams has been sidelined for this fixture due to an adductor problem.
His elder sibling, Iñaki, remains fit for selection and is expected to feature on the right flank. Creative midfielder Oihan Sancet is set to operate in the hosts’ playmaker role, with Maroan Sannadi anticipated to spearhead Athletic’s attack.
The home side will be without Beñat Prados and Unai Egiluz, while experienced centre-back Yeray Álvarez continues his extended suspension following a doping violation. Inigo Lekue’s participation remains uncertain due to fitness concerns.
Athletic Club – Predicted XI (4-2-3-1):
- Goalkeeper: Simón
- Defenders: Areso, Vivian, Paredes, Berchiche
- Midfielders: Vesga, Jauregizar, Sancet
- Forwards: I. Williams, Berenguer; Sannadi
Arsenal – Team News
Arteta experienced contrasting fortunes regarding injuries during the Forest encounter. Skipper Martin Ødegaard departed before half-time due to a shoulder complaint, with the duration of his absence still unclear. The Arsenal boss has confirmed that surgical intervention will not be required.
William Saliba may be rested ahead of Sunday’s showdown with Erling Haaland, though Ben White and Piero Hincapié both featured at the weekend. This duo could be brought into the starting lineup for Tuesday’s fixture.
Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus and Kai Havertz continue their rehabilitation for the away side, while Christian Nørgaard was again omitted from Saturday’s matchday selections. Declan Rice is certain to feature from the outset after benefiting from early-season rotation following the international window.
Arsenal – Predicted XI (4-3-3)
- Goalkeeper: Raya
- Defenders: White, Mosquera, Gabriel, Hincapié
- Midfielders: Zubimendi, Rice, Nwaneri
- Forwards: Madueke, Gyökeres, Eze
Athletic Club vs Arsenal: Prediction
The absence of Nico Williams represents a significant setback for the home side, with his missing presence clearly evident during Saturday’s shocking home defeat to Alavés.
Valverde’s team have established themselves as consistent La Liga performers in recent seasons, occasionally troubling Spain’s elite clubs at San Mamés. While this represents a momentous occasion for Athletic, Arsenal present a formidable challenge for the Basque outfit.
The Gunners displayed fluid and commanding football on Saturday, with Arteta now possessing squad depth that enables extensive rotation without substantial quality deterioration. They have accumulated valuable tournament experience under the Spanish tactician and appear well-equipped to handle the demands of Tuesday’s high-profile encounter.
Prediction: Athletic Club 1–3 Arsenal
When and Where to Watch Athletic Club vs Arsenal in India? Broadcast and Streaming Details
Indian football fans can catch the Athletic Club vs Arsenal Champions League clash live on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, with kick-off scheduled for 10:15 PM IST at the Estadio de San Mamés in Bilbao. The match will be telecast on multiple Sony Sports channels including Sony Ten 1, Sony Ten 1 HD, Sony Ten 2, Sony Ten 2 HD, Sony Ten 3, Sony Ten 3 HD, Sony Ten 5, and Sony Ten 5 HD. For digital streaming, Sony LIV will provide live coverage of the fixture, though viewers will need a premium subscription to access the content.
Additionally, JioTV users can stream the match through their platform, as they hold non-exclusive streaming rights for UEFA Champions League matches in India from 2024-25 to 2026-27, serving as a premium content partner of Sony Sports Network. This marks the first competitive meeting between these two historic clubs, making it a must-watch encounter for Indian football enthusiasts who can enjoy comprehensive coverage across Sony’s multi-platform approach.
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FAQs
When and where is the Athletic Club vs Arsenal match?
The Champions League fixture is on Tuesday at Estadio de San Mamés in Bilbao, Spain.
How can Indian fans watch the match?
Live coverage is available on Sony Sports channels and streaming on Sony LIV and JioTV with subscriptions.
What’s Arsenal’s record against Spanish teams recently?
Arsenal have won their last five matches against Spanish opposition in European competition.
Which key players are injured for both teams?
Athletic Club miss Nico Williams, while Arsenal are without Ødegaard, Saka, Gabriel Jesus, and Havertz.
Who are the tournament favorites according to predictions?
Arsenal are second favorites to win the Champions League, while Athletic Club have just a 0.5% chance according to Opta simulations.
