Marcus Rashford To Aston Villa: Tactical Analysis And Can He Revive His Career Under Unai Emery?

Marcus Rashford and Manchester United fulfilled their shared desire to part ways on Sunday, paving the way for a fresh start with Aston Villa.

Manchester United exuded genuine optimism following the 2022-23 season, as Erik ten Hag’s debut campaign delivered the club’s first trophy in six years and secured a Champions League return. Hopes were high for further progress in 2023-24.

A crucial factor in United’s anticipated growth was Marcus Rashford’s form. Fresh off the best season of his career, he signed a new contract in July 2023, reinforcing belief in his potential.

Shortly before Rashford committed to the new deal, Ten Hag set ambitious expectations for the England international, who had scored 30 goals in 2022-23.

“I’m sure he’s capable of scoring 40 goals in a season and taking the next step,” Ten Hag said in May 2023. “We supported him through our playing style and his mental mindset. We’re happy, but we must push for more.”

However, in the 20 months since those remarks, Rashford has netted just 15 goals in 69 appearances across all competitions. His status at United has plummeted, casting doubt on his future at the club—despite his insistence that the move is only a “short-term” departure.

Rashford’s Decline: From Key Player to Uncertain Future

Aston Villa secured Marcus Rashford’s signature on Sunday, with the 27-year-old arriving on an initial loan deal that reportedly includes a £40 million purchase option.

It’s remarkable how drastically Rashford’s career trajectory has shifted since his outstanding 2022-23 campaign, which suggested that Manchester United—and particularly Erik ten Hag—had finally unlocked his full potential.

However, Ten Hag frequently hinted that Rashford’s form, both good and bad, was influenced by his life off the pitch. As recently as September, he remarked that Rashford “has to set his life right, his training attitude right, his match attitude right.”

Concerns within Old Trafford were not eased by Rashford’s brief resurgence earlier this season, as emphasized by Ruben Amorim.

United’s new head coach dropped both Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho from the squad entirely for December’s Manchester derby win. While Garnacho “changed right after that City game” and earned his place back, Rashford has not played since and has been named on the bench just once.

Given Rashford’s deep connection to United as a homegrown talent and lifelong fan who has made over 400 appearances for the club, his current situation is unfortunate.

Rashford’s Struggles with Confidence

Rashford, he is far from a lost cause. His performances under Ten Hag in 2022-23 showcased his dynamism and quality, proving what he is still capable of.

Meanwhile, Villa boss Unai Emery has a strong reputation for revitalizing players or maximizing the potential of those who previously struggled to deliver consistently.

The goal for Emery will undoubtedly be to help Rashford rediscover the form he displayed two seasons ago when he scored 30 goals in 56 appearances across all competitions. His Opta Radar from that season highlights the attacking impact he had specifically in the Premier League.

During his stellar 2022-23 season, almost everything Rashford touched turned to gold. He played with purpose, bravery, and, most importantly, decisiveness. After battling a persistent hip injury the previous year, he appeared free of pain and sharper than ever.

However, the next two Opta Radars illustrate the stark decline in his attacking output since then.

Off-field issues have frequently been cited as potential factors in his struggles. It’s natural for personal challenges to affect performance, leading to a dip in confidence.

If Rashford were to attribute his United downturn over the past 18 months to a loss of confidence, few would find it surprising.

Rashford’s Diminishing Attacking Output: A Striker Losing His Edge

In the 2022-23 Premier League season, Rashford averaged 3.4 shots per 90 minutes—the highest of his career—reflecting his confidence and attacking intent. He embraced the responsibility of being United’s primary goal threat.

However, despite maintaining a similar frequency of touches in the opposition box (dropping only slightly from 6.2 to 6.1 per 90), his shot output fell to 2.5 per 90 last season. Consequently, his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) declined sharply from 0.53 per 90 to just 0.2.

This season, the numbers have worsened further. Rashford now attempts only 1.46 shots per 90, placing him in the 16th percentile among forwards in Europe’s top five leagues over the past decade.

His game has never been built around creativity but rather pace, direct ball carrying, and a decisive shooting instinct. Yet, over the past 18 months, his shot frequency has more than halved.

A similar trend emerges in his ball carrying. In 2022-23, he averaged 1.25 shot-ending carries per game, which dropped to 0.91 last season and further declined to 0.64 this term.

One possible reason for this drastic drop in goal threat is that Rashford is receiving fewer passes in central areas.

While his heat maps for the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons show he operated in broadly the same zones, the red patches—indicating his highest concentration of touches—suggest he played much closer to the penalty area in Ten Hag’s first season.

Though the difference may not appear dramatic at first glance, the maps highlight how Rashford was a more influential presence across a wider section of the pitch in 2022-23, particularly inside and around the 18-yard box.

Rashford’s Changing Role: A Tactical Shift Affecting His Output

A closer look at Rashford’s touch zone maps reveals subtle yet crucial changes in his positioning. While his touches inside the opposition’s box remained comparable to 2022-23, they were less concentrated in the left-most area of the penalty box last season. Instead, he saw more of the ball in central zones just outside the box.

Another significant difference was his reduced presence in the six-yard box, which undoubtedly impacted his goal tally.

Overall, Rashford operated from deeper positions in 2023-24, a trend reflected in his ball-carrying statistics. Last season, he progressed the ball 93.1 meters upfield and carried it 152.5 meters per 90 minutes—both figures notably higher than in 2022-23 (75.5m and 117.7m, respectively). The contrast suggests he was forced to carry the ball further because he played farther from goal.

Several factors could have influenced this shift. The arrival of Rasmus Højlund may have altered Rashford’s positioning and attacking responsibilities. The prolonged absence of Luke Shaw, his key partner on the left flank, likely disrupted his natural attacking patterns. Additionally, Manchester United’s underwhelming performances last season did little to help his individual output.

At Aston Villa, his partnership with Ollie Watkins will be an intriguing subplot. There are reasons to believe this move could reignite Rashford’s best form.

Villa thrived last season by excelling in transition play. They moved the ball through the lines quickly and had the physical attributes to counterattack effectively.

Their 39 fast breaks ranked fourth in the Premier League, while their 33 shot-ending fast breaks placed them sixth. Only three teams scored more goals from fast breaks than their seven.

If Rashford can rediscover his directness and attacking sharpness in Villa’s system, this transfer could prove a masterstroke for both club and player.

This season, however, their effectiveness has significantly declined. With just 21 fast breaks, they rank behind 12 other teams, and those opportunities have resulted in only one goal—only Everton and Leicester City have managed fewer.

This drop-off could be attributed to opponents adapting and tightening their defensive approach, making it harder for Villa to exploit space. Additionally, the departure of Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey’s dip in form may have also played a role in their diminished attacking threat.

A Fresh Start for Rashford: Can Emery Unlock His Potential?

Rashford could be the missing piece in Villa’s transition play, and it might work in his favor that Unai Emery has previously coached Kylian Mbappé—another explosive forward, albeit a more consistent and prolific one.

It’s also worth noting that during Rashford’s best season, Manchester United led the Premier League in key transition metrics, including most shots (241), fast breaks (36), and goals from fast breaks (nine).

However, tactics alone won’t matter if Emery can’t help Rashford rediscover his confidence and joy on the pitch. The forward has always performed best when playing with freedom and taking responsibility—something he acknowledged himself in July 2023:

“I think that gives you the baseline to try and showcase your abilities. I enjoy scoring goals, I enjoy making assists, playing in the forward areas, and trying to cause a threat to the other team.”

“We were just a little bit rigid in the past. Sometimes you’re not enjoying your football, and that was the case with me—I wasn’t enjoying it as much as I should have, and it affected my performance. If I’m not happy, it’s difficult for me to play my best football.”

Rashford’s skill set aligns well with Emery’s playing style, and a change of environment—especially at a club with less scrutiny than United—could provide the boost he needs.

Still, concerns remain. Amorim’s persistent questioning of Rashford’s training commitment over the past six weeks has raised eyebrows, and the England international must recognize that Emery demands high work ethic from his players.

That said, if everything clicks, Rashford and Villa could prove to be an ideal partnership.

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