Manchester City have reduced their reliance on long balls this season, yet they have played a significant role in their recent matches. What’s behind this trend, and could they use the same approach against Arsenal?
Manchester City’s season has been quite an unusual one. Pep Guardiola may not find it amusing, but it has certainly been an intriguing campaign.
Their streak of just one win in 13 matches across all competitions at the end of 2024 might not even be the most unexpected aspect of their season.
Anyone who watched City’s 3-1 comeback victory over Chelsea last weekend may have noticed a surprising pattern—each of their goals involved a direct, long-ball approach.
Guardiola’s City is synonymous with two things: relentless league title success and a meticulous passing game. Since Guardiola’s arrival in 2016, City have led the Premier League in completed passes every season.
In a 2017-18 Champions League group stage match against Napoli, City secured a 2-1 win at home but struggled against Maurizio Sarri’s high-pressing side. Despite the pressure, Guardiola’s team insisted on playing out from the back. After the game, Guardiola remarked: “We have to do it [pass out from the back] more… You play long balls against that team [and] in two seconds they are attacking. In football, that’s how fast it goes. So, you have to play that way.”
Table of Contents
Guardiola’s Shift in Approach to Long Balls
Following Saturday’s win over Chelsea, more than seven years after his Napoli comments, Pep Guardiola had a noticeably different perspective on playing through the opposition’s press.
“In the second half, they were more aggressive, marking man-to-man,” he explained. “When that happens and they press the keeper, you can create a two-against-one with him. But when they don’t, you have to play long to Erling [Haaland] because winning that ball becomes a scoring opportunity.”
Of course, City didn’t have Haaland back in 2017-18—a forward who combines lethal finishing with the physical presence of a traditional target man. At the time, Guardiola seemed almost dismissive of the idea of his team resorting to long passes. Yet, even then, 8.4% of City’s passes against Napoli were classified as long (at least 32 meters in length).
This doesn’t mean simply launching hopeful balls forward. Long passes can still be precise, strategic plays aimed at teammates in space.
Against Chelsea, City executed 53 long passes—9.4% of their total 567 passes, the highest proportion in any Premier League game this season. Their next highest came in the 2-1 loss to Manchester United in December (8.8%), followed by 8.7% in their 2-2 draw with Brentford in January.
They proved to be effective as well. Ilkay Gündogan’s lofted pass to Matheus Nunes eventually set up Josko Gvardiol’s equalizer after Noni Madueke had put Chelsea ahead early.
Two of these long passes came from goalkeeper Ederson, who picked out Erling Haaland with a precise ball, leading to the Norwegian lobbing Robert Sánchez to put City 2-1 ahead. Ederson also delivered a pass to the halfway line, which Kevin De Bruyne flicked on before Haaland set up Phil Foden to secure the victory late on.
That being said, the long passes against Chelsea may have stood out more simply because they resulted in goals.
Just three days earlier, when City squandered a two-goal lead in their 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, 12.4% of their passes were long—their highest percentage in any game since February 2023. This suggests Guardiola may be viewing it as a partial solution to their recent struggles.
While it may not have been effective against PSG, it certainly worked against Chelsea. Could City adopt the same approach when they face Arsenal on Sunday?
Guardiola vs. Arteta: Could Long Balls Be Key Again?
Recent clashes between Pep Guardiola and his former protégé, Mikel Arteta, have produced some intense battles. One standout encounter came in February 2023, when Manchester City and Arsenal were locked in a Premier League title race. City traveled to north London and secured a commanding 3-1 victory, during which 17.2% of their passes (52 of 303) were long—their second-highest percentage under Guardiola.
This approach was also evident in their FA Cup clash just weeks earlier, where City’s 1-0 win at the Etihad saw 13.2% of their passes played long, ranking ninth-highest in Guardiola’s tenure. The strategy seemed to work against Arsenal, though City relied on it less in their 4-1 win two months later (9.9%).
However, in their last three league meetings, City attempted long balls in no more than 7.9% of their passes and failed to win any of those games (D2, L1). This includes the 2-2 draw at the Etihad earlier this season, where Leandro Trossard’s red card influenced the second-half dynamics.
With that history in mind, Guardiola may look to exploit long passes once more when City visit Arsenal on Sunday. However, overcoming Arsenal’s formidable center-back duo of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães—who were also present in City’s 3-1 win in February 2023—will be a significant challenge.
Beyond Haaland: City’s Tactical Use of Long Balls
Is Manchester City simply launching balls up to Erling Haaland? The answer is both yes and no. While Haaland’s imposing physical presence makes him a natural target, City’s approach to long balls is more nuanced. The Norwegian has received the most long passes of any City player in the Premier League this season (76), but he isn’t their only focal point.
Against Chelsea, it was evident that City also utilized balls over the top to exploit runs from their full-backs, Joško Gvardiol and Matheus Nunes. Gvardiol had a golden opportunity in the first half from one such ball, while Nunes’ movement led to Gvardiol’s eventual equalizer. In fact, Nunes (44) and Gvardiol (38) rank second and third for long balls received among City players in the league this season. Nunes, despite occasionally playing in attack, has also received the most switches (11), highlighting City’s preference for using him as a target for long passes.
However, does this mean City have become a long-ball team? Absolutely not. Their 3-1 Champions League victory over Club Brugge on Wednesday was a clear departure from that approach, as only 19 of their 815 passes (2.3%) were classified as long.
Statistically, City remain one of the least direct teams in the league. Only Tottenham (762) have attempted fewer long passes than their 799 this season. Moreover, their average of 34.7 long passes per game is a notable drop from last season (42.2) and significantly lower than the 2022-23 campaign (46.3).
Manchester City’s use of long balls isn’t about quantity—it’s about efficiency. Despite attempting the second-fewest long passes in the Premier League this season, they have completed more (461) than seven other teams. Their success rate of 57.7% is also the highest in the league, with Brighton & Hove Albion (50.8%) being the only other team to complete at least half of their long passes.
A key factor in City’s reduced reliance on long balls this season is the absence of Rodri. The 2024 Ballon d’Or winner was instrumental in their build-up play, completing 241 long passes last season—despite attempting just 299, which was at least 459 fewer than the top three players in that category. Without a direct replacement for him, City’s long passing has declined, but their recent uptick suggests Guardiola is finding new ways to use it effectively, particularly against high-pressing teams.
One of the main solutions has come from deeper in the pitch—goalkeeper Ederson. Arsenal will need to stay alert when he’s on the ball, as his assist for Haaland’s goal last weekend brought him level with Paul Robinson for the most assists by a goalkeeper in Premier League history (5). Ederson has completed 89 long passes this season, ranking among the league’s best, despite attempting far fewer than those above him.
So, while City won’t go long too often, they certainly have it in their arsenal when needed—pun intended. Expect a fascinating battle at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, with City’s direct approach meeting Arsenal’s set-piece strength. Sounds like a classic Premier League clash in the making.
FAQs
How is Manchester City using long balls under Pep Guardiola?
While City are known for their possession-based style, they have strategically incorporated long balls, especially from goalkeeper Ederson and midfielders, to exploit space behind defenses.
Why has Manchester City’s long passing decreased this season?
The absence of Rodri, a key deep-lying playmaker, has led to a drop in long-ball attempts. However, Guardiola appears to be reintroducing them as a tactical solution against high-pressing teams.
How effective is Manchester City’s long-ball strategy?
Despite attempting fewer long passes than most teams, City boasts the highest success rate in the Premier League (57.7%), making them highly efficient when they choose to go direct.
What role does Ederson play in Manchester City’s long-ball approach?
Ederson is a key playmaker from the back, delivering pinpoint long passes. His recent assist for Haaland tied him with Paul Robinson for the most assists by a goalkeeper in Premier League history (5).
Could Manchester City use long balls against Arsenal?
Given Arsenal’s high-pressing approach, Guardiola may deploy long balls again to bypass pressure, as seen in past encounters where City found success with direct play.
