This weekend’s top-of-the-table clash in the Bundesliga between Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich is undoubtedly the most significant match across Europe’s top five leagues. Ahead of the game, we provide our prediction and preview for this highly anticipated encounter.
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Match Preview
In what is undoubtedly the highlight fixture of the weekend across Europe, Bayer Leverkusen aims to increase their lead at the summit of the Bundesliga table to five points by securing a victory over second-place Bayern Munich. However, this task proves to be challenging against the stalwarts of German club football, who have clinched 11 successive Bundesliga titles.
Nevertheless, this Bayer Leverkusen side appears distinct from any previous opponent Bayern has encountered during their dominant reign, with Xabi Alonso transforming them into genuine title contenders since assuming the role of head coach in October 2022.
Leverkusen is in pursuit of their inaugural Bundesliga title, striving to become the 13th different club to claim the championship since its inception in 1963-64. Despite finishing as runners-up on five occasions in previous seasons, this campaign presents their most promising opportunity yet.
Leverkusen boasts the league’s lowest number of goals conceded – their tally of 14 after 20 games matches a club record set in 1989-90 – and has recorded the highest number of clean sheets with 10. Additionally, they trail only Bayern in goals scored, with 52 to Bayern’s 59. Their aggressive pressing style has led to four goals following turnovers, with Alonso’s side tallying a league-leading 42 shots in such situations – 12 more than Bayern.
Bayern Munich stands as the dominant force in German football, boasting a record 32 Bundesliga titles and the third-highest number of European Cup/Champions League triumphs (six) among all clubs. Since the 2011-12 season, no team other than Bayern has lifted the Bundesliga trophy, with Borussia Dortmund being the last to do so under Jürgen Klopp’s management. Thomas Tuchel, who guided Paris Saint-Germain to two Ligue 1 titles in 2019 and 2020, secured his first Bundesliga title last season after assuming leadership at Bayern Munich.
Both Bayer Leverkusen and Bayern Munich have displayed captivating football in the German top flight this season, characterized by their methodical and intricate playing styles. These two clubs are regarded as the most “slow and intricate” in the Bundesliga. Notably, only two teams have maintained an average possession of 60% or higher in the league this season, with Leverkusen leading the pack at 62.6%, closely followed by Bayern Munich at 61.6%.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Head-to-Head
In the history of their matchups, it’s no surprise that Bayern Munich has emerged victorious against Bayer Leverkusen more times than any other team, notching up 52 wins. Conversely, Leverkusen has garnered fewer points against Bayern than any other opponent, averaging just 0.84 points per match (based on three points for a win).
However, Leverkusen’s recent performances against Bayern have shown improvement. They have avoided defeat in their last two encounters with the reigning champions, securing a 2-1 home victory last season and earning a 2-2 draw in Munich earlier this term. The last time Leverkusen managed to remain unbeaten against Bayern Munich in three consecutive league games was between 2009 and 2010.
During the 2-2 draw on September 15th, Bayer Leverkusen exhibited resilience by twice equalizing after Bayern had taken the lead, first through Álex Grimaldo in response to Harry Kane’s opener, and then in added time courtesy of Exequiel Palacios’ penalty, negating Leon Goretzka’s 86th-minute strike that seemed to secure victory for Bayern. Notably, this match remains the only instance in the league this season where Bayern Munich dropped points from a winning position.
It’s worth mentioning that Alonso’s side entered the game as league leaders, marking the fourth time in Bundesliga history that they faced the second-placed team while at the top of the table; however, they failed to win any of those encounters, drawing twice and losing twice. This upcoming weekend will mark the fifth occurrence.
Xabi Alonso, who had 117 appearances for Bayern as a player from 2014 to 2017, has maintained an undefeated record in his first two Bundesliga encounters against his former club as a coach, winning one and drawing one. The last manager to achieve such a feat was Julian Nagelsmann with TSG Hoffenheim between 2016 and 2017.
In their recent history, Bayern Munich has lost just once in their last eight Bundesliga meetings with Bayer Leverkusen, registering five wins and two draws. The solitary defeat occurred at BayArena on March 19, 2023, when Leverkusen secured a 2-1 victory, with both goals coming from penalty kicks converted by Exequiel Palacios in the second half following Joshua Kimmich’s 22nd-minute opener for Bayern.
Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen is currently experiencing its best start to a season, boasting an impressive streak of form. Following their recent victory over VfB Stuttgart in the DFB-Pokal, they have extended their unbeaten run to 30 consecutive matches across all competitions. This remarkable feat not only sets a new club record but also brings them within two games of breaking the all-time record held by a German professional club, currently held by Bayern Munich, who went 32 games without defeat from December 2019 to September 2020.
With a record of 16 wins and four draws this season, Bayer Leverkusen has become only the fourth team in Bundesliga history to remain unbeaten in the first 20 matches of a campaign, joining the ranks of Bayern Munich in 1988-89, themselves in 2009-10, and Bayern once again in 2013-14. Bayern holds the record for the longest unbeaten start to a Bundesliga season, going undefeated until their 29th match in the 2013-14 season en route to the title.
Under Alonso’s guidance, Bayer Leverkusen needs just five more victories from their remaining 14 Bundesliga matches to equal their record tally of 21 wins in a season, a feat achieved in 1996-97, 1999-00, and 2001-02 – all seasons in which they finished as runners-up.
Meanwhile, Bayern Munich’s last defeat was on January 21st, a 1-0 loss at home to Werder Bremen. They have since bounced back strongly, winning their last three Bundesliga games against teams currently in the bottom half of the table: Union Berlin, Augsburg, and Borussia Mönchengladbach.
With 50 points from 20 games, Bayern has amassed more points at this stage of the season than in any of the last five seasons, surpassing their tally of 43 points at the same point last term. The last time they reached 50 points from their first 20 games was in the 2017-18 season.
Key Players
Bayer Leverkusen- Florian Wirtz
At just 20 years old, Florian Wirtz of Bayer Leverkusen is showcasing an exceptional season. Approaching his 100th Bundesliga appearance, Wirtz is poised to become one of only six players to achieve this milestone before turning 21. This accomplishment is even more impressive considering he endured nearly a year-long absence due to an ACL injury between March 2022 and January 2023. Currently ranked 16th for the most minutes played in Bundesliga history before the age of 21, Wirtz is on track to break into the top five before his upcoming birthday, requiring just 548 more minutes to do so.
Wirtz leads the Bundesliga in open-play chances created with 47, surpassing Leroy Sané’s 43, while also boasting the second-highest open-play expected assists (xA) total in the league with 6.2, trailing only the Bayern winger’s 7.0. Throughout the 2023-24 season across all competitions, he has contributed to 23 goals in 28 appearances, registering 15 assists, the highest tally among Bundesliga players.
Although Wirtz is not the sole creative force in the team, with teammate Grimaldo boasting more league goals (7) and assists (9) this season, the recent form of the young talent has significantly mitigated the impact of losing top scorer Victor Boniface to injury last month.
Bayern Munich- Harry Kane
A prolific scorer in Premier League history, Harry Kane’s transition to the German top flight following his high-profile move from Tottenham Hotspur to Bayern Munich has been nothing short of remarkable. While expectations were high, Kane’s goal-scoring prowess has arguably surpassed all predictions in his debut season at the club.
Bayern faced a goal-scoring void last season, with none of their players exceeding 14 goals and only three reaching double figures in the Bundesliga (Serge Gnabry -14, Jamal Musiala – 12, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting – 10). The addition of the England captain has proven to be the solution they needed.
Kane has netted an astounding 24 league goals in the opening 20 matchdays of the Bundesliga season, a feat matched only by Robert Lewandowski during his 2020-21 campaign with Bayern. He now stands just six goals away from equaling the all-time Bundesliga record for goals by a player in their debut season, set by Uwe Seeler with 30 goals in 1963-64. Furthermore, Kane requires 17 goals in the remaining 14 matchdays of this season to match Lewandowski’s all-time record tally of 41 goals in 2020-21.
Having already scored 28 goals in all competitions this campaign, Kane is on the verge of reaching the 30-goal mark for the sixth time in his career. He needs just 13 more competitive goals before the end of the 2023-24 season to equal his all-time seasonal best tally of 41 goals, achieved during his tenure at Spurs in the 2017-18 season.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Our prediction leans towards Bayer Leverkusen securing a crucial home victory in this highly anticipated clash. A win for Bayer would not only solidify their position at the top of the Bundesliga table but also significantly enhance their prospects of clinching their maiden Bundesliga title.
However, should Bayern Munich emerge victorious, they would leapfrog Bayer Leverkusen to claim the top spot in the league standings, leading by just a single point. This scenario underscores the magnitude of this match in the title race, highlighting its potential to shape the destiny of both teams.
While a draw wouldn’t be detrimental for either side, it would maintain Leverkusen’s narrow one-point lead with 13 matchdays remaining. Nevertheless, in a tightly contested race against Bayern Munich, who boast an impressive streak of 11 Bundesliga titles, every point becomes crucial.
It’s noteworthy that three out of the five instances Bayer Leverkusen finished as runners-up in the Bundesliga saw them conceding the title to Bayern Munich. Thus, a defeat in this match could potentially echo historical patterns.
When & Where to Watch The Match: Streaming Details
You can stream the match live at Sony LIV from 11 pm (IST) onwards for a monthly Mobile-Only Plan: ₹599; Premium 6 Months Plan: ₹699; Premium Monthly Plan: ₹299 or a Premium Yearly Plan: ₹999 according to your convenience or you can catch the match live at TV on Sony Sports Ten 2 and Sony Sports Ten 3.
