Drishyam 3 vs Haiwaan Box Office Forecast: Why One Franchise Finale Is Set to Break Records

Two very different box office stories are unfolding this September. On one side sits Drishyam 3, a franchise juggernaut riding a decade of goodwill straight into a national holiday release. On the other is Haiwaan, an Akshay Kumar release struggling to generate advance buzz just days before hitting theatres. Here’s a full breakdown of what’s driving each forecast — and why the gap between them is so wide.

Drishyam 3 vs Haiwaan Predicts First Day Forecast

Drishyam 3: Why the Forecast Is So Massive

Drishyam 3 enters this tracking cycle with a first-day forecast of Rs. 50-60 crore nett, and there’s good reason for that confidence. The Drishyam franchise has quietly become one of Indian cinema’s most reliable IPs over the past decade. The original film was only an average performer on release but built a reputation through strong word-of-mouth and long theatrical legs. Its sequel, released in the tricky post-COVID window of 2021, went on to become one of the first genuine blockbusters of that era — a rare feat at a time when audiences were still cautiously returning to cinemas.

What makes Drishyam 3 different — and arguably a safer bet — is that it isn’t a remake. Both earlier Hindi instalments were adaptations of the original Malayalam films, which occasionally capped their creative and commercial ceiling given how remakes have generally struggled with Indian audiences in recent years. This time, the makers have sidestepped that limitation entirely by crafting an original Hindi screenplay. There’s also a subtler advantage at play: the Malayalam third instalment in that franchise didn’t receive the same universal acclaim as its predecessors, but since this Hindi version isn’t a direct remake, it doesn’t inherit any of that baggage.

Add to this the fact that franchise and IP-driven films have been dominating 2026’s box office — nearly every hit this year has been part of an established franchise — and the timing looks near perfect. Releasing on a national holiday only strengthens an already strong setup, giving the film a real shot at breaking opening-day records. The one caveat: as a thriller-drama, Drishyam 3 may not have the same mass pull in smaller centres as an out-and-out action or comedy entertainer, which could be the deciding factor between setting a record and merely coming close.

Haiwaan: A Release Struggling to Build Momentum

The picture looks considerably less optimistic for Akshay Kumar’s Haiwaan. With its revised forecast sitting between Rs. 4-7 crore, the film has shown little sign of generating pre-release buzz. Advance bookings, which opened just a day before this report, have reportedly been underwhelming — a signal that isn’t easy to reverse in the final stretch before release.

For Haiwaan, the path forward now largely depends on walk-up audiences drawn purely by Akshay Kumar’s star value, with any real upside hinging on strong word-of-mouth kicking in during later shows on release day itself. It’s a tougher climb, especially when releasing without the kind of anticipation that a franchise title like Drishyam 3 carries in.

What This Forecast Says About 2026’s Box Office Trends

Taken together, these two forecasts highlight a clear pattern shaping this year’s box office: familiarity and franchise strength are consistently outperforming standalone star-driven vehicles. Titles with built-in audience recognition — whether through a beloved character, an established universe, or years of accumulated goodwill — are simply starting several steps ahead of films relying on a single star’s pull alone.

This also explains why smaller upcoming releases like Vibe, Daayra, and Vvan carry modest forecasts in the Rs. 1.5-5 crore range, while a re-release like Avengers: Endgame – Encore is projected to outperform several new titles entirely on the strength of nostalgia and franchise loyalty.

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