Five Games, One Mission: Can Roberto De Zerbi Save Tottenham from Relegation?

“We have another five games. It’s tough, every one of us knows it’s a tough moment, it’s a difficult situation, but we have another five games, 15 points, and this team is able to win five games in a row.”

Those were the words of Roberto De Zerbi after Tottenham drew 2-2 with Brighton on Saturday evening — a match in which Spurs led 2-1 heading into the fifth minute of second-half stoppage time before conceding a gut-wrenching late equaliser. A first league win of 2026 continues to elude them, and the longest winless streak in the club’s Premier League history has now stretched to 15 games.

And yet, the Italian manager who was parachuted in to save Tottenham from what was once unthinkable stands before the cameras and insists his team can win every game that remains. Five from five. Maximum points. Survival secured.

It is the kind of statement that sounds either delusional or defiant depending on your perspective. But is there any evidence — historical or statistical — to suggest Roberto De Zerbi might actually be right?

What De Zerbi Saw Against Brighton

Before dismissing the claim outright, it is worth acknowledging what happened at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday evening. Because for the first time in a very long time, Spurs were actually good.

It was the best Tottenham had played all season. They kept the ball well, pressed aggressively, attacked cohesively, and created more than enough chances to win the match. For the first time since the 2-2 draw at Burnley on 24 January — 11 Premier League games ago — Spurs generated more expected goals than their opponents.

In just two and a half weeks with the players, Roberto De Zerbi has clearly had a significant tactical impact. The improvement was visible and measurable. Tottenham were unfortunate not to take all three points. They had the lead. They had the chances. Xavi Simons struck the post. It should have been enough.

But it was not. And that is the recurring, painful theme of this season. Good spells, better moments, encouraging passages — and then, inevitably, a collapse. The Brighton equaliser deep in stoppage time was the cruellest possible illustration of where Tottenham currently find themselves: playing well enough to deserve victories but incapable of actually securing them.

Still, De Zerbi saw enough. He saw a team responding to his coaching, creating chances, dominating the ball, and pressing with purpose. That is what gave him the confidence to make his bold proclamation.

The Current State of Play

Following West Ham’s 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace on Monday night, the gap between Tottenham and safety now stands at two points. It is not an insurmountable deficit. But it is a deficit that must be closed by a team that has won just seven of 33 league games this season — and none of its last 15.

The challenge is clear: Tottenham must dramatically reverse their form in the space of just five matches, while simultaneously hoping that the teams above them falter. Both West Ham and Nottingham Forest are in reasonable form — one and zero defeats, respectively, in their last five matches — and Leeds have already played their way clear of danger. Spurs do at least have a marginally more favourable set of remaining fixtures than their direct rivals.

Can They Really Win Five in a Row? History Says No — But…

Let’s address the headline claim directly. Roberto De Zerbi says Tottenham can win all five of their remaining games. History says that is extraordinarily unlikely.

No team has ever been in the relegation zone with five matches of a Premier League season remaining and won all five of those games. It has never happened. Not once in the competition’s 30-plus-year history.

For a team that has won seven of 33 matches this season, winning five consecutive games under extreme pressure would represent one of the most remarkable turnarounds in English football history. It would be, by any reasonable standard, close to impossible.

But here is the thing: Tottenham almost certainly do not need to win all five.

Three Wins Might Be Enough

Over the past 23 years, the team finishing 18th in the Premier League has never accumulated more than 39 points. While that does not guarantee the same pattern this season, it strongly suggests that reaching 40 points would almost certainly be enough for survival.

Tottenham currently sit on 31 points. Three wins from their remaining five matches would take them to 40 points. That is a far more realistic target than five from five — and history shows it is achievable, even from the most desperate positions.

There are 18 examples in Premier League history of teams winning at least three of their last five games after being in the relegation zone with five matches to play. Five of those instances involved teams winning four of their final five. While not all of those teams survived — some, like West Brom in 2017-18 and Fulham in 2018-19, were already relegated and playing without pressure — plenty of others pulled off genuine escape acts.

Historical Precedents: It Has Been Done Before

Several examples from the past offer Tottenham at least a shred of hope.

2007-08: Both Fulham and Bolton Wanderers were in the relegation zone with five games to play. Fulham were six points adrift of safety; Bolton were four points behind. Fulham won four of their last five matches. Bolton won three and drew two. Both survived.

2013-14: Sunderland sat bottom of the table after 33 games. They won four of their last five and finished five points clear of the relegation zone — one of the great escape acts in Premier League history.

2016-17: Perhaps the most relevant precedent of all. Swansea City were 18th after 33 games, two points adrift of safety, and on a dreadful run — just one point from their previous six matches. Their remaining fixtures were against teams in 5th, 7th, 8th, 11th, and 20th. They won four and drew one to finish comfortably clear of relegation.

The parallels between Tottenham’s current situation and Swansea’s in 2016-17 are striking. Both teams were 18th after 33 games. Both were two points from safety. Both were in abysmal form. And Swansea’s remaining fixture list — against opponents in 5th, 7th, 8th, 11th, and 20th — is remarkably similar to the teams Tottenham face in their final five matches: opponents currently in 4th, 6th, 10th, 15th, and 20th.

Swansea pulled it off nine years ago. The question is whether Tottenham have the character, the quality, and the fortune to do the same.

The Problems That Remain

For all the encouragement the Brighton performance provided, significant concerns persist.

First, Tottenham’s fate is not in their own hands. They cannot simply win and survive. They need results elsewhere to go their way. West Ham and Nottingham Forest are not collapsing — both are picking up points at a rate that keeps them above the dotted line. Spurs need their rivals to stumble at the exact moment they begin to find their feet. That requires a combination of their own improvement and external fortune that is extremely difficult to engineer.

Second, the Brighton game, while encouraging, still ended in a draw. Tottenham dominated the expected goals battle by a margin of 0.27 xG — a slender advantage that hardly constituted total domination. Chinks in their armour remain. Brighton exploited them. The Spurs players gave everything they had and produced the best performance of their season, and it still was not enough to win.

Third, the margins are razor-thin. Xavi Simons hit the post with a chance that could have sealed the victory. The stoppage-time equaliser was a devastating blow. At this stage of the season, with this little room for error, Tottenham need to convert those chances and avoid those late lapses. They need to be closer to perfect than they were on Saturday.

De Zerbi’s Impact: Real But Unfinished

What cannot be denied is that Roberto De Zerbi has made a tangible difference in a very short space of time. In just over two weeks, he has given this Tottenham team a recognisable shape, a pressing identity, and a level of cohesion in possession that had been absent for months.

His track record suggests he is capable of coaxing improvement quickly. At Brighton, he transformed a mid-table squad into one of the most tactically sophisticated teams in the division. At Tottenham, the task is different — survival rather than style points — but the early signs suggest his influence is genuine.

Whether it is enough, and whether it has come in time, remains to be seen. Five games. Fifteen points available. A two-point deficit to overcome. It is one of the most compelling — and agonising — subplots of the Premier League season.

Read More: Can Roberto De Zerbi Teach His Football Fast Enough to Save Tottenham Hotspur?

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