Few gave Sunderland much hope of avoiding relegation from the Premier League this season. And yet, they’ve reached the magical 40-point mark by Matchday 29.
It wasn’t pretty. Sunderland had just 29.7 percent possession and managed only three shots at Elland Road. One was the decisive penalty, and another was the scruffy blocked effort that led to Ethan Ampadu’s handball for the spot-kick. That was all Sunderland needed to seal a 1-0 win away to fellow promoted side Leeds.
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The Significance of 40 Points
Although there isn’t officially a definitive point at which a side is guaranteed safety, historically the Premier League has treated the 40-point mark as this threshold. Tuesday’s win left the Black Cats on exactly that—an achievement that cannot be taken for granted considering the backdrop of their initial promotion.
The Promotion Context
Sunderland finished 24 points behind the Championship’s top two, including Leeds. They went up via the play-offs, requiring stoppage-time winners in both the semi-finals and final. Their 72 points was the joint lowest of any team promoted to the Premier League since Crystal Palace in 2012-13, and so they were largely written off.
All three promoted teams from the prior two Premier League campaigns had gone straight back down. If far better Championship sides couldn’t handle the step up, what hope did Sunderland have?
Squad Overhaul
Only three players who were owned by the club last season have played more than 40 percent of the team’s minutes in the Premier League this term. Instead of relying on the core that got them promoted, Régis Le Bris and the club built a group that could handle the increase in standard. The significant investment was a necessary gamble that has paid off.
Mathematical Reality
Sunderland aren’t mathematically safe. The gap to West Ham in 18th is 15 points and the Hammers have 10 games left to play, giving them 30 points to play for. However, realistically, Sunderland’s chances of going down are almost null. West Ham would have to pick up points at a considerable rate while Sunderland’s form fell off a cliff.
The 40-Point History
Despite 40 points typically being seen as enough to stay up, there is some historical precedent for teams being relegated with that many. But not much.
Only three teams have ever gone down at the end of a 38-game Premier League season with 40-plus points.
Teams Relegated with 40+ Points
| Season | Team | Points | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996-97 | Sunderland | 40 | Relegated |
| 1997-98 | Bolton Wanderers | 40 | Relegated |
| 2002-03 | West Ham | 42 | Relegated |
Sunderland were actually one of those sides in 1996-97, as they went down with exactly 40 points. The following season, Bolton Wanderers were unable to stay up having also accumulated 40. The only instance of a team being relegated with more than 40 points occurred in 2002-03, when West Ham left the top flight despite managing to earn 42 points.
Best Promoted Teams
With all that in mind, then, relegation for Sunderland this season looks incredibly unlikely, and so we turn our attention to the best-performing promoted teams in Premier League history.
Sunderland’s 40 points is the 14th best return through 29 matches by a promoted team. It may not sound outstanding, but we shouldn’t forget that the top flight has only become wealthier and stronger over the years, so theoretically tougher for the promoted sides. For instance, seven of the best promoted teams through Matchday 29 were from the 2000-01 season or earlier.
Recent Promoted Teams Performance (Matchday 29)
| Season | Team | Points | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Sheffield United | 44 | Best since 2009-10 |
| 2018-19 | Wolves | 43 | Second-best since 2009-10 |
| 2024-25 | Sunderland | 40 | Third-best since 2009-10 |
Sunderland’s return is very good, then. In fact, only two promoted teams have managed more by Matchday 29 of a Premier League season since 2009-10—Sheffield United took 44 in 2019-20, while Wolves accumulated 43 in 2018-19.
Read More: Seven Reds in 28 Games and Counting: How Chelsea’s Discipline Is Costing Them
FAQs
How many points do teams typically need to avoid Premier League relegation?
The magical 40-point mark has historically been considered enough for Premier League safety. Only three teams have been relegated with 40 or more points in a 38-game season: Sunderland (40 points, 1996-97), Bolton (40 points, 1997-98), and West Ham (42 points, 2002-03).
How does Sunderland’s 40 points compare to other promoted teams?
Sunderland’s 40 points by Matchday 29 is the 14th best return by a promoted team in Premier League history and the third-best since 2009-10, behind only Sheffield United (44 in 2019-20) and Wolves (43 in 2018-19).
Can Sunderland still be relegated this season?
Mathematically, yes—West Ham in 18th are 15 points behind with 10 games remaining (30 points available). However, realistically Sunderland’s chances of relegation are almost null, as West Ham would need a remarkable run while Sunderland’s form collapsed completely.
